A financial market entry decision model for international construction business using real option analysis and Monte Carlo simulation

Recent trends in the international construction markets indicate a growing number of projects that require a long-term investment strategy on the part of a construction firm. Therefore, this changing market environment calls for businesses to shift their paradigm from individual projects with limited decision-making tasks to projects with long-term investments and complex decision-making issues. The majority of the latest studies on international market entry address decision-making models based on risk analysis. When a contractor ventures into foreign markets, the consideration of various financial circumstances that he faces poses certain inevitable limitations. Therefore, this study developed a model that is based on real option analysis and Monte Carlo simulation, and is capable of incorporating uncertainties in the market during the evaluation of the market development proposal and the financial evaluation. The model allows for integrative consideration of both market risk and private risk. Applying the proposed model is believed to offer reasonable support to construction firms with maximum accommodation of each market's circumstances.