A novel risk score for hepatocellular carcinoma in Asian cirrhotic patients: A multicentre prospective cohort study

Kung Hao Liang, Sang Hoon Ahn, Hye Wong Lee, Ya Hui Huang, Rong Nan Chien, Tsung Hui Hu, Kwang Huei Lin, Christopher Sung Huan Yeh, Chao Wei Hsu, Chih Lang Lin, Tai Long Pan, Po Yuan Ke, Ming Ling Chang, Chau Ting Yeh

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Abstract

Liver cirrhotic patients suffer from a seemingly unpredictable risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Here, an HCC risk score R (0 ? R ? 1) was derived from commonly tested haematological and biochemical parameters. In the score-derivation Taiwanese cohort (144 cirrhosis versus 48 HCCremission patients), the score had an area-under-the-curve (AUC) of 0.70 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.61-0.78, P < 0.001). When validated in a Korean cohort (78 cirrhosis versus 23 HCC-remission patients), the AUC was 0.68 (CI, 0.56-0.80, P = 0.009). In a multicentre prospective cohort (478 cirrhotic patients prospectively followed for HCC occurrence), the hazard ratio with respect to R was 2.344 (CI = 1.183-4.646, P = 0.015). The cumulative incidences of HCC at two years after patient enrolment were 9.6% and 1.7% for the high-risk (R ≥ 0.5) and low-risk (R < 0.5) groups, respectively (P < 0.001). At the end of the study, the incidences were 10.9% and 5.0%, respectively (P = 0.012). The majority of HCCs (23/26) in the high-risk group emerged within the first two years of follow-up. In conclusion, an HCC risk score was developed for cirrhotic patients that effectively predicted HCC in a prospective cohort study.

Original languageEnglish
Article number8608
JournalScientific reports
Volume8
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2018 Dec 1

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

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    Liang, K. H., Ahn, S. H., Lee, H. W., Huang, Y. H., Chien, R. N., Hu, T. H., Lin, K. H., Yeh, C. S. H., Hsu, C. W., Lin, C. L., Pan, T. L., Ke, P. Y., Chang, M. L., & Yeh, C. T. (2018). A novel risk score for hepatocellular carcinoma in Asian cirrhotic patients: A multicentre prospective cohort study. Scientific reports, 8(1), [8608]. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-26992-3