Age threshold for ischemic stroke risk in atrial fibrillation cohort data covering the entire Korean population

Tae Hoon Kim, Pil Sung Yang, Hee Tae Yu, Eunsun Jang, Jae Sun Uhm, Jong Youn Kim, Hui Nam Pak, Moon Hyoung Lee, Boyoung Joung, Gregory Y.H. Lip

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

13 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Background and Purpose-Although older age is one of the most important risk factor for stroke in atrial fibrillation (AF), the appropriate age threshold (eg, CHA2DS2-VASc score [congestive heart failure, hypertension, age ≥75 years (doubled), diabetes mellitus, prior stroke or transient ischemic attack (doubled), vascular disease, age 65-74 years, female], 1 point for age 65-74 years, 2 points for age ≥75 years) for increased risk is controversial because actual age thresholds may differ between countries and ethnic groups. We investigated the age threshold for ischemic stroke risk among Asian AF patients. Methods-Using National Health Insurance Service database, including 426 650 oral anticoagulant-naive nonvalvular AF patients from 2005 to 2015, with ≤2 nongender-related CHA2DS2-VASc risk scores (CHA2DS2-VASc score 0-2 in males, 1-3 in females), we assessed the risk of ischemic stroke in AF patients according to the age. Results-Patients who fulfill the age risk criterion (age, 65-74 years) without other risk factors showed a significantly higher risk of stroke (4.76 per 100 person-years [100PY]; adjusted hazard ratio, 2.25; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.17-2.36) compared with patients with 1 risk score other than age (1.87/100PY). Patients aged 55 to 59 years with no risk factors showed similar risk of stroke (1.94/100PY; adjusted hazard ratio, 0.95; 95% confidence interval, 0.90-1.00) than patients with 1 risk score (2.06/100PY). Patients aged 65 to 69 years and no other risk factors had similar stroke risk (4.08/100PY; adjusted hazard ratio, 0.93; 95% confidence interval, 0.90-0.97) than patients with 2 nongender-related risk scores (4.42/100PY). Conclusions-Older age is the most important predictor of ischemic stroke in AF, particularly for patients with low to intermediate risk of stroke. These nationwide data suggest lowering the current age threshold (age, ≥65 years) in the CHA2DS2-VASc score to age ≥55 years might be appropriate among Asian patients with AF.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1872-1879
Number of pages8
JournalStroke
Volume49
Issue number8
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2018

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
This study was supported by a research grant from the Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation (NRF) of Korea funded by the Ministry of Education, Science and Technology (NRF-2017R1A2B3003303), research grant from Development of Fundamental Technology Program through the NRF of Korea funded by Ministry of Science, Information and communications technology and Future Planning (NRF-2017M3A9E8029724), and grants from the Korean Healthcare Technology Research and Development (R&D) project funded by the Ministry of Health and Welfare (HI16C0058, HI15C1200).

Funding Information:
National Health Information Database was provided by the National Health Insurance Service of Korea. We thank the National Health Insurance Service for cooperation. This study was supported by a research grant from the Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation (NRF) of Korea funded by the Ministry of Education, Science and Technology (NRF-2017R1A2B3003303), research grant from Development of Fundamental Technology Program through the NRF of Korea funded by Ministry of Science, Information and communications technology and Future Planning (NRF-2017M3A9E8029724), and grants from the Korean Healthcare Technology Research and Development (R&D) project funded by the Ministry of Health and Welfare (HI16C0058, HI15C1200).

Publisher Copyright:
© 2018 American Heart Association, Inc.

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Clinical Neurology
  • Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine
  • Advanced and Specialised Nursing

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