Algorithm for Economic Assessment of Infrastructure Adaptation to Climate Change

Climate change adaptation in the infrastructure sector has received increased attention in recent years, but local governments and asset managers frequently find it difficult to identify the most suitable and efficient adaptation options. This paper proposes a framework for assessing the costs and benefits of infrastructure adaptation at the local level. The framework consists of three steps: (1) selecting target infrastructure and adaptation options, (2) identifying climate factors, and (3) performing an economic assessment algorithm simulation. The suggested economic assessment algorithm considers both gradual and extreme impacts of climate change and provides an integrated economic assessment over the lifecycle of the infrastructure. Three representative concentration pathways climate scenarios are used to estimate the cost of future damage and the conditions of the assessed infrastructure. A case study is undertaken examining adaptation of an erosion control system in a mountain watershed with an 85-year analysis period that yields a comprehensive understanding of the application of the suggested framework. This research is expected to guide decision making in prioritizing the most cost-effective adaptation strategies for infrastructure.