Analysis for chain-crash risk of LEO satellite due to collision between Iridium-33 and Cosmos-2251

Eun Jung Choi, Jae Cheol Yoon, Byoung Sun Lee, Sang-Young Park, Kyu Hong Choi

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

The commercial communication satellite, Iridium-33 and a defunct Russian satellite, Cosmos-2251 ran into each other on February 10, 2009 above Northern Siberia, creating a cloud of debris. The impact occurred at 16:56:00 UTC, at latitude 72°20′04″, longitude 97°52′46″, altitude 788.68 km. As a result of these events, it is assumed that a significant amount of debris including thousands or even tens of thousands of fragments was produced. In this research, the probability of chain-crash between debris fragments generated by the collision and a Korean LEO satellite, which has been performing its mission in sun-synchronous orbit with 685 km altitude, was analyzed. The breakup model for the catastrophic collision, in which both the satellites are totally fragmented, was applied for modeling debris parameters which consist of size, mass, and delta-velocity and so on. The orbits of the fragments generated after the collision and the Korean LEO satellite were propagated in order to estimate other collision possibility between them. In especial, the orbit of each fragmentation using SGP4 propagator is propagated individually instead of the debris cloud propagation. The osculating orbits of the fragments were converted into the mean orbit of Two Line Element (TLE) using the Newton-Rhapson iterative procedure. The weekly update TLE was also used for propagation of the Korean LEO satellite. A Monte Carlo simulation was implemented to estimate statistical possibility of collisions. The result shows that the evolution of collision fragmentations increases the possibility of additional collision between the fragments and the Korean LEO satellite.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication60th International Astronautical Congress 2009, IAC 2009
Pages1836-1842
Number of pages7
Publication statusPublished - 2009 Dec 1
Event60th International Astronautical Congress 2009, IAC 2009 - Daejeon, Korea, Republic of
Duration: 2009 Oct 122009 Oct 16

Publication series

Name60th International Astronautical Congress 2009, IAC 2009
Volume3

Other

Other60th International Astronautical Congress 2009, IAC 2009
CountryKorea, Republic of
CityDaejeon
Period09/10/1209/10/16

Fingerprint

cosmos
crashes
iridium
low Earth orbits
collision
debris
collisions
fragments
orbits
propagation
Cosmos satellites
fragmentation
spacecraft breakup
communication satellites
Siberia
estimates
longitude
analysis
newton
sun

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Space and Planetary Science
  • Astronomy and Astrophysics

Cite this

Choi, E. J., Yoon, J. C., Lee, B. S., Park, S-Y., & Choi, K. H. (2009). Analysis for chain-crash risk of LEO satellite due to collision between Iridium-33 and Cosmos-2251. In 60th International Astronautical Congress 2009, IAC 2009 (pp. 1836-1842). (60th International Astronautical Congress 2009, IAC 2009; Vol. 3).
Choi, Eun Jung ; Yoon, Jae Cheol ; Lee, Byoung Sun ; Park, Sang-Young ; Choi, Kyu Hong. / Analysis for chain-crash risk of LEO satellite due to collision between Iridium-33 and Cosmos-2251. 60th International Astronautical Congress 2009, IAC 2009. 2009. pp. 1836-1842 (60th International Astronautical Congress 2009, IAC 2009).
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title = "Analysis for chain-crash risk of LEO satellite due to collision between Iridium-33 and Cosmos-2251",
abstract = "The commercial communication satellite, Iridium-33 and a defunct Russian satellite, Cosmos-2251 ran into each other on February 10, 2009 above Northern Siberia, creating a cloud of debris. The impact occurred at 16:56:00 UTC, at latitude 72°20′04″, longitude 97°52′46″, altitude 788.68 km. As a result of these events, it is assumed that a significant amount of debris including thousands or even tens of thousands of fragments was produced. In this research, the probability of chain-crash between debris fragments generated by the collision and a Korean LEO satellite, which has been performing its mission in sun-synchronous orbit with 685 km altitude, was analyzed. The breakup model for the catastrophic collision, in which both the satellites are totally fragmented, was applied for modeling debris parameters which consist of size, mass, and delta-velocity and so on. The orbits of the fragments generated after the collision and the Korean LEO satellite were propagated in order to estimate other collision possibility between them. In especial, the orbit of each fragmentation using SGP4 propagator is propagated individually instead of the debris cloud propagation. The osculating orbits of the fragments were converted into the mean orbit of Two Line Element (TLE) using the Newton-Rhapson iterative procedure. The weekly update TLE was also used for propagation of the Korean LEO satellite. A Monte Carlo simulation was implemented to estimate statistical possibility of collisions. The result shows that the evolution of collision fragmentations increases the possibility of additional collision between the fragments and the Korean LEO satellite.",
author = "Choi, {Eun Jung} and Yoon, {Jae Cheol} and Lee, {Byoung Sun} and Sang-Young Park and Choi, {Kyu Hong}",
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Choi, EJ, Yoon, JC, Lee, BS, Park, S-Y & Choi, KH 2009, Analysis for chain-crash risk of LEO satellite due to collision between Iridium-33 and Cosmos-2251. in 60th International Astronautical Congress 2009, IAC 2009. 60th International Astronautical Congress 2009, IAC 2009, vol. 3, pp. 1836-1842, 60th International Astronautical Congress 2009, IAC 2009, Daejeon, Korea, Republic of, 09/10/12.

Analysis for chain-crash risk of LEO satellite due to collision between Iridium-33 and Cosmos-2251. / Choi, Eun Jung; Yoon, Jae Cheol; Lee, Byoung Sun; Park, Sang-Young; Choi, Kyu Hong.

60th International Astronautical Congress 2009, IAC 2009. 2009. p. 1836-1842 (60th International Astronautical Congress 2009, IAC 2009; Vol. 3).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

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N2 - The commercial communication satellite, Iridium-33 and a defunct Russian satellite, Cosmos-2251 ran into each other on February 10, 2009 above Northern Siberia, creating a cloud of debris. The impact occurred at 16:56:00 UTC, at latitude 72°20′04″, longitude 97°52′46″, altitude 788.68 km. As a result of these events, it is assumed that a significant amount of debris including thousands or even tens of thousands of fragments was produced. In this research, the probability of chain-crash between debris fragments generated by the collision and a Korean LEO satellite, which has been performing its mission in sun-synchronous orbit with 685 km altitude, was analyzed. The breakup model for the catastrophic collision, in which both the satellites are totally fragmented, was applied for modeling debris parameters which consist of size, mass, and delta-velocity and so on. The orbits of the fragments generated after the collision and the Korean LEO satellite were propagated in order to estimate other collision possibility between them. In especial, the orbit of each fragmentation using SGP4 propagator is propagated individually instead of the debris cloud propagation. The osculating orbits of the fragments were converted into the mean orbit of Two Line Element (TLE) using the Newton-Rhapson iterative procedure. The weekly update TLE was also used for propagation of the Korean LEO satellite. A Monte Carlo simulation was implemented to estimate statistical possibility of collisions. The result shows that the evolution of collision fragmentations increases the possibility of additional collision between the fragments and the Korean LEO satellite.

AB - The commercial communication satellite, Iridium-33 and a defunct Russian satellite, Cosmos-2251 ran into each other on February 10, 2009 above Northern Siberia, creating a cloud of debris. The impact occurred at 16:56:00 UTC, at latitude 72°20′04″, longitude 97°52′46″, altitude 788.68 km. As a result of these events, it is assumed that a significant amount of debris including thousands or even tens of thousands of fragments was produced. In this research, the probability of chain-crash between debris fragments generated by the collision and a Korean LEO satellite, which has been performing its mission in sun-synchronous orbit with 685 km altitude, was analyzed. The breakup model for the catastrophic collision, in which both the satellites are totally fragmented, was applied for modeling debris parameters which consist of size, mass, and delta-velocity and so on. The orbits of the fragments generated after the collision and the Korean LEO satellite were propagated in order to estimate other collision possibility between them. In especial, the orbit of each fragmentation using SGP4 propagator is propagated individually instead of the debris cloud propagation. The osculating orbits of the fragments were converted into the mean orbit of Two Line Element (TLE) using the Newton-Rhapson iterative procedure. The weekly update TLE was also used for propagation of the Korean LEO satellite. A Monte Carlo simulation was implemented to estimate statistical possibility of collisions. The result shows that the evolution of collision fragmentations increases the possibility of additional collision between the fragments and the Korean LEO satellite.

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Choi EJ, Yoon JC, Lee BS, Park S-Y, Choi KH. Analysis for chain-crash risk of LEO satellite due to collision between Iridium-33 and Cosmos-2251. In 60th International Astronautical Congress 2009, IAC 2009. 2009. p. 1836-1842. (60th International Astronautical Congress 2009, IAC 2009).