TY - JOUR
T1 - Asymmetric phase shifts in U.S. industrial production cycles
AU - Chang, Yongsung
AU - Hwang, Sunoong
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2015 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Copyright:
Copyright 2015 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.
PY - 2015/3/1
Y1 - 2015/3/1
N2 - We identify cyclical turning points for 74 U.S. manufacturing industries and uncover new empirical regularities: (a) industries tend to comove between expansion and contraction phases over the business cycle (b) clusters of industry turning points are highly asymmetric between peaks and troughs: troughs are much more concentrated and sharper than peaks (c) the temporal pattern of phase shifts across industries supports the spillovers through input-output linkages; and (d) macroeconomic shocks, such as unanticipated changes in monetary policy, government spending, oil prices, and financial conditions, are significant drivers of industrial phase shifts.
AB - We identify cyclical turning points for 74 U.S. manufacturing industries and uncover new empirical regularities: (a) industries tend to comove between expansion and contraction phases over the business cycle (b) clusters of industry turning points are highly asymmetric between peaks and troughs: troughs are much more concentrated and sharper than peaks (c) the temporal pattern of phase shifts across industries supports the spillovers through input-output linkages; and (d) macroeconomic shocks, such as unanticipated changes in monetary policy, government spending, oil prices, and financial conditions, are significant drivers of industrial phase shifts.
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U2 - 10.1162/REST_a_00436
DO - 10.1162/REST_a_00436
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:84924238142
VL - 97
SP - 116
EP - 133
JO - Review of Economics and Statistics
JF - Review of Economics and Statistics
SN - 0034-6535
IS - 1
ER -