Asymmetric phase shifts in U.S. industrial production cycles

Yongsung Chang; Sunoong Hwang

doi:10.1162/REST_a_00436

Asymmetric phase shifts in U.S. industrial production cycles

Yongsung Chang, Sunoong Hwang

Department of Economics

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

5 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

We identify cyclical turning points for 74 U.S. manufacturing industries and uncover new empirical regularities: (a) industries tend to comove between expansion and contraction phases over the business cycle (b) clusters of industry turning points are highly asymmetric between peaks and troughs: troughs are much more concentrated and sharper than peaks (c) the temporal pattern of phase shifts across industries supports the spillovers through input-output linkages; and (d) macroeconomic shocks, such as unanticipated changes in monetary policy, government spending, oil prices, and financial conditions, are significant drivers of industrial phase shifts.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	116-133
Number of pages	18
Journal	Review of Economics and Statistics
Volume	97
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1162/REST_a_00436
Publication status	Published - 2015 Mar 1

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

Social Sciences (miscellaneous)
Economics and Econometrics

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abstract = "We identify cyclical turning points for 74 U.S. manufacturing industries and uncover new empirical regularities: (a) industries tend to comove between expansion and contraction phases over the business cycle (b) clusters of industry turning points are highly asymmetric between peaks and troughs: troughs are much more concentrated and sharper than peaks (c) the temporal pattern of phase shifts across industries supports the spillovers through input-output linkages; and (d) macroeconomic shocks, such as unanticipated changes in monetary policy, government spending, oil prices, and financial conditions, are significant drivers of industrial phase shifts.",

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