Abstract
We identify cyclical turning points for 74 U.S. manufacturing industries and uncover new empirical regularities: (a) industries tend to comove between expansion and contraction phases over the business cycle (b) clusters of industry turning points are highly asymmetric between peaks and troughs: troughs are much more concentrated and sharper than peaks (c) the temporal pattern of phase shifts across industries supports the spillovers through input-output linkages; and (d) macroeconomic shocks, such as unanticipated changes in monetary policy, government spending, oil prices, and financial conditions, are significant drivers of industrial phase shifts.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 116-133 |
| Number of pages | 18 |
| Journal | Review of Economics and Statistics |
| Volume | 97 |
| Issue number | 1 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 2015 Mar 1 |
All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes
- Social Sciences (miscellaneous)
- Economics and Econometrics
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Cite this
Chang, Y., & Hwang, S. (2015). Asymmetric phase shifts in U.S. industrial production cycles. Review of Economics and Statistics, 97(1), 116-133. https://doi.org/10.1162/REST_a_00436