Asymmetric phase shifts in U.S. industrial production cycles

Yong Sung Chang, Sunoong Hwang

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

4 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

We identify cyclical turning points for 74 U.S. manufacturing industries and uncover new empirical regularities: (a) industries tend to comove between expansion and contraction phases over the business cycle (b) clusters of industry turning points are highly asymmetric between peaks and troughs: troughs are much more concentrated and sharper than peaks (c) the temporal pattern of phase shifts across industries supports the spillovers through input-output linkages; and (d) macroeconomic shocks, such as unanticipated changes in monetary policy, government spending, oil prices, and financial conditions, are significant drivers of industrial phase shifts.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)116-133
Number of pages18
JournalReview of Economics and Statistics
Volume97
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2015 Mar 1

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industrial production
industry
oil price
business cycle
manufacturing industry
monetary policy
regularity
macroeconomics
driver
Industrial production
Production cycle
Industry
Turning point

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Social Sciences (miscellaneous)
  • Economics and Econometrics

Cite this

Chang, Yong Sung ; Hwang, Sunoong. / Asymmetric phase shifts in U.S. industrial production cycles. In: Review of Economics and Statistics. 2015 ; Vol. 97, No. 1. pp. 116-133.
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Asymmetric phase shifts in U.S. industrial production cycles. / Chang, Yong Sung; Hwang, Sunoong.

In: Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 97, No. 1, 01.03.2015, p. 116-133.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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