Abstract
We identify cyclical turning points for 74 U.S. manufacturing industries and uncover new empirical regularities: (a) industries tend to comove between expansion and contraction phases over the business cycle (b) clusters of industry turning points are highly asymmetric between peaks and troughs: troughs are much more concentrated and sharper than peaks (c) the temporal pattern of phase shifts across industries supports the spillovers through input-output linkages; and (d) macroeconomic shocks, such as unanticipated changes in monetary policy, government spending, oil prices, and financial conditions, are significant drivers of industrial phase shifts.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 116-133 |
| Number of pages | 18 |
| Journal | Review of Economics and Statistics |
| Volume | 97 |
| Issue number | 1 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 2015 Mar 1 |
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All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes
- Social Sciences (miscellaneous)
- Economics and Econometrics
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Asymmetric phase shifts in U.S. industrial production cycles. / Chang, Yongsung; Hwang, Sunoong.
In: Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 97, No. 1, 01.03.2015, p. 116-133.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
TY - JOUR
T1 - Asymmetric phase shifts in U.S. industrial production cycles
AU - Chang, Yongsung
AU - Hwang, Sunoong
PY - 2015/3/1
Y1 - 2015/3/1
N2 - We identify cyclical turning points for 74 U.S. manufacturing industries and uncover new empirical regularities: (a) industries tend to comove between expansion and contraction phases over the business cycle (b) clusters of industry turning points are highly asymmetric between peaks and troughs: troughs are much more concentrated and sharper than peaks (c) the temporal pattern of phase shifts across industries supports the spillovers through input-output linkages; and (d) macroeconomic shocks, such as unanticipated changes in monetary policy, government spending, oil prices, and financial conditions, are significant drivers of industrial phase shifts.
AB - We identify cyclical turning points for 74 U.S. manufacturing industries and uncover new empirical regularities: (a) industries tend to comove between expansion and contraction phases over the business cycle (b) clusters of industry turning points are highly asymmetric between peaks and troughs: troughs are much more concentrated and sharper than peaks (c) the temporal pattern of phase shifts across industries supports the spillovers through input-output linkages; and (d) macroeconomic shocks, such as unanticipated changes in monetary policy, government spending, oil prices, and financial conditions, are significant drivers of industrial phase shifts.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84924238142&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84924238142&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1162/REST_a_00436
DO - 10.1162/REST_a_00436
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:84924238142
VL - 97
SP - 116
EP - 133
JO - Review of Economics and Statistics
JF - Review of Economics and Statistics
SN - 0034-6535
IS - 1
ER -