Abstract
Background and Purpose-As the threshold of stroke risk for initiating oral anticoagulants is lowered after the introduction of the nonvitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants, the focus of stroke prevention in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation has shifted away from predicting high-risk patients toward initially identifying patients with a truly low risk of ischemic stroke, who do not need antithrombotic therapy. We tested the predictive ability of the congestive heart failure, hypertension, age ≥75, diabetes mellitus, prior stroke or transient ischemic attack (doubled; CHADS2), congestive heart failure, hypertension, age ≥75 (doubled), diabetes mellitus, prior stroke or transient ischemic attack (doubled), vascular disease, age 65 to 74, female (CHA2DS2-VASc), and Anticoagulation and Risk Factors in Atrial Fibrillation (ATRIA) risk stratification schemes in oral anticoagulants naive patients with atrial fibrillation in a Korean nationwide sample cohort. Methods-From January 2002 to December 2008, a total of 5855 oral anticoagulant naive patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation aged ≥20 years were enrolled from Korea National Health Insurance Service-Sample Cohort database and were followed-up until December 2013. Results-At baseline, the proportions categorized as low risk using CHADS2, CHA2DS2-VASc, and ATRIA risk stratification schemes were 1049 (17.9%), 860 (14.7%), and 3280 (56.0%), respectively. During follow-up, the low-risk category using CHADS2, CHA2DS2-VASc, and ATRIA scores was retained in 811 (13.9%), 667 (11.4%), and 2729 (46.6%) patients, respectively. Rates of ischemic stroke (100 person-years) in the low risk categories of CHADS2, CHA2DS2-VASc, and ATRIA scores were 0.42, 0.26, and 1.43, respectively. CHA2DS2-VASc had the best sensitivity (98.8% versus 85.7% in CHADS2 and 74.8% in ATRIA) and negative predictive value (98.8% versus 95.3% for CHADS2 and 93.7% for ATRIA) for the prediction of stroke incidence and was best for the prediction of the absence of ischemic stroke during 5 years of follow-up (odds ratio, 16.4 [95% confidence interval, 8.8-30.8]). Conclusions-The CHA2DS2-VASc score shows good performance in defining truly low-risk Asian patients with atrial fibrillation for stroke compared with CHADS2 and ATRIA scores.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 2984-2990 |
| Number of pages | 7 |
| Journal | Stroke |
| Volume | 48 |
| Issue number | 11 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 2017 Nov |
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All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes
- Clinical Neurology
- Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine
- Advanced and Specialised Nursing
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CHA2DS2-VASc score for identifying truly low-risk atrial fibrillation for stroke a Korean nationwide cohort study. / Kim, Tae Hoon; Yang, Pil Sung; Kim, Daehoon; Yu, Hee Tae; Uhm, Jae Sun; Kim, Jong Youn; Pak, Hui Nam; Lee, Moon Hyoung; Joung, Boyoung; Lip, Gregory Y.H.
In: Stroke, Vol. 48, No. 11, 11.2017, p. 2984-2990.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
TY - JOUR
T1 - CHA2DS2-VASc score for identifying truly low-risk atrial fibrillation for stroke a Korean nationwide cohort study
AU - Kim, Tae Hoon
AU - Yang, Pil Sung
AU - Kim, Daehoon
AU - Yu, Hee Tae
AU - Uhm, Jae Sun
AU - Kim, Jong Youn
AU - Pak, Hui Nam
AU - Lee, Moon Hyoung
AU - Joung, Boyoung
AU - Lip, Gregory Y.H.
PY - 2017/11
Y1 - 2017/11
N2 - Background and Purpose-As the threshold of stroke risk for initiating oral anticoagulants is lowered after the introduction of the nonvitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants, the focus of stroke prevention in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation has shifted away from predicting high-risk patients toward initially identifying patients with a truly low risk of ischemic stroke, who do not need antithrombotic therapy. We tested the predictive ability of the congestive heart failure, hypertension, age ≥75, diabetes mellitus, prior stroke or transient ischemic attack (doubled; CHADS2), congestive heart failure, hypertension, age ≥75 (doubled), diabetes mellitus, prior stroke or transient ischemic attack (doubled), vascular disease, age 65 to 74, female (CHA2DS2-VASc), and Anticoagulation and Risk Factors in Atrial Fibrillation (ATRIA) risk stratification schemes in oral anticoagulants naive patients with atrial fibrillation in a Korean nationwide sample cohort. Methods-From January 2002 to December 2008, a total of 5855 oral anticoagulant naive patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation aged ≥20 years were enrolled from Korea National Health Insurance Service-Sample Cohort database and were followed-up until December 2013. Results-At baseline, the proportions categorized as low risk using CHADS2, CHA2DS2-VASc, and ATRIA risk stratification schemes were 1049 (17.9%), 860 (14.7%), and 3280 (56.0%), respectively. During follow-up, the low-risk category using CHADS2, CHA2DS2-VASc, and ATRIA scores was retained in 811 (13.9%), 667 (11.4%), and 2729 (46.6%) patients, respectively. Rates of ischemic stroke (100 person-years) in the low risk categories of CHADS2, CHA2DS2-VASc, and ATRIA scores were 0.42, 0.26, and 1.43, respectively. CHA2DS2-VASc had the best sensitivity (98.8% versus 85.7% in CHADS2 and 74.8% in ATRIA) and negative predictive value (98.8% versus 95.3% for CHADS2 and 93.7% for ATRIA) for the prediction of stroke incidence and was best for the prediction of the absence of ischemic stroke during 5 years of follow-up (odds ratio, 16.4 [95% confidence interval, 8.8-30.8]). Conclusions-The CHA2DS2-VASc score shows good performance in defining truly low-risk Asian patients with atrial fibrillation for stroke compared with CHADS2 and ATRIA scores.
AB - Background and Purpose-As the threshold of stroke risk for initiating oral anticoagulants is lowered after the introduction of the nonvitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants, the focus of stroke prevention in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation has shifted away from predicting high-risk patients toward initially identifying patients with a truly low risk of ischemic stroke, who do not need antithrombotic therapy. We tested the predictive ability of the congestive heart failure, hypertension, age ≥75, diabetes mellitus, prior stroke or transient ischemic attack (doubled; CHADS2), congestive heart failure, hypertension, age ≥75 (doubled), diabetes mellitus, prior stroke or transient ischemic attack (doubled), vascular disease, age 65 to 74, female (CHA2DS2-VASc), and Anticoagulation and Risk Factors in Atrial Fibrillation (ATRIA) risk stratification schemes in oral anticoagulants naive patients with atrial fibrillation in a Korean nationwide sample cohort. Methods-From January 2002 to December 2008, a total of 5855 oral anticoagulant naive patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation aged ≥20 years were enrolled from Korea National Health Insurance Service-Sample Cohort database and were followed-up until December 2013. Results-At baseline, the proportions categorized as low risk using CHADS2, CHA2DS2-VASc, and ATRIA risk stratification schemes were 1049 (17.9%), 860 (14.7%), and 3280 (56.0%), respectively. During follow-up, the low-risk category using CHADS2, CHA2DS2-VASc, and ATRIA scores was retained in 811 (13.9%), 667 (11.4%), and 2729 (46.6%) patients, respectively. Rates of ischemic stroke (100 person-years) in the low risk categories of CHADS2, CHA2DS2-VASc, and ATRIA scores were 0.42, 0.26, and 1.43, respectively. CHA2DS2-VASc had the best sensitivity (98.8% versus 85.7% in CHADS2 and 74.8% in ATRIA) and negative predictive value (98.8% versus 95.3% for CHADS2 and 93.7% for ATRIA) for the prediction of stroke incidence and was best for the prediction of the absence of ischemic stroke during 5 years of follow-up (odds ratio, 16.4 [95% confidence interval, 8.8-30.8]). Conclusions-The CHA2DS2-VASc score shows good performance in defining truly low-risk Asian patients with atrial fibrillation for stroke compared with CHADS2 and ATRIA scores.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85032158354&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85032158354&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1161/STROKEAHA.117.018551
DO - 10.1161/STROKEAHA.117.018551
M3 - Article
C2 - 28939672
AN - SCOPUS:85032158354
VL - 48
SP - 2984
EP - 2990
JO - Stroke
JF - Stroke
SN - 0039-2499
IS - 11
ER -