Climate phenomena and their relevance for future regional climate change

Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen, Krishna Kumar Kanikicharla, Edvin Aldrian, Soon Il An, Iracema Fonseca Albuquerque Cavalcanti, Manuel de Castro, Wenjie Dong, Prashant Goswami, Alex Hall, Joseph Katongo Kanyanga, Akio Kitoh, James Kossin, Ngar Cheung Lau, James Renwick, David B. Stephenson, Shang Ping Xie, Tianjun Zhou, Libu Abraham, Tércio Ambrizzi, Bruce AndersonOsamu Arakawa, Raymond Arritt, Mark Baldwin, Mathew Barlow, David Barriopedro, Michela Biasutti, Sébastien Biner, David Bromwich, Josephine Brown, Wenju Cai, Leila V. Carvalho, Ping Chang, Xiaolong Chen, Jung Choi, Ole Bøssing Christensen, Clara Deser, Kerry Emanuel, Hirokazu Endo, David B. Enfield, Amato Evan, Alessandra Giannini, Nathan Gillett, Annamalai Hariharasubramanian, Ping Huang, Julie Jones, Ashok Karumuri, Jack Katzfey, Erik Kjellström, Jeff Knight, Thomas Knutson, Ashwini Kulkarni, Koteswara Rao Kundeti, William K. Lau, Geert Lenderink, Chris Lennard, Lai yung Ruby Leung, Renping Lin, Teresa Losada, Neil C. Mackellar, Victor Magaña, Gareth Marshall, Linda Mearns, Gerald Meehl, Claudio Menéndez, Hiroyuki Murakami, Mary Jo Nath, J. David Neelin, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Martin Olesen, Jan Polcher, Yun Qian, Suchanda Ray, Katharine Davis Reich, Belén Rodriguez de Fonseca, Paolo Ruti, James Screen, Jan Sedláček, Silvina Solman, Martin Stendel, Samantha Stevenson, Izuru Takayabu, John Turner, Caroline Ummenhofer, Kevin Walsh, Bin Wang, Chunzai Wang, Ian Watterson, Matthew Widlansky, Andrew Wittenberg, Tim Woollings, Sang Wook Yeh, Chidong Zhang, Lixia Zhang, Xiaotong Zheng, Liwei Zou

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter

594 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This chapter assesses the scientific literature on projected changes in major climate phenomena and more specifically their relevance for future change in regional climates, contingent on global mean temperatures continue to rise. Regional climates are the complex result of processes that vary strongly with location and so respond differently to changes in global-scale influences. The following large-scale climate phenomena are increasingly well simulated by climate models and so provide a scientific basis for understanding and developing credibility in future regional climate change. A phenomenon is considered relevant to regional climate change if there is confidence that it has influence on the regional climate and there is confidence that the phenomenon will change, particularly under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) or higher end scenarios. {Table 14.3} There is growing evidence of improved skill of climate models in reproducing climatological features of the global monsoon. Taken together with identified model agreement on future changes, the global monsoon, aggregated over all monsoon systems, is likely to strengthen in the 21st century with increases in its area and intensity, while the monsoon circulation weakens. Monsoon onset dates are likely to become earlier or not to change much and monsoon retreat dates are likely to delay, resulting in lengthening of the monsoon season in many regions.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationClimate Change 2013 the Physical Science Basis
Subtitle of host publicationWorking Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
PublisherCambridge University Press
Pages1217-1308
Number of pages92
Volume9781107057999
ISBN (Electronic)9781107415324
ISBN (Print)9781107057999
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2013 Jan 1

Fingerprint Dive into the research topics of 'Climate phenomena and their relevance for future regional climate change'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

  • Cite this

    Christensen, J. H., Kanikicharla, K. K., Aldrian, E., An, S. I., Albuquerque Cavalcanti, I. F., de Castro, M., Dong, W., Goswami, P., Hall, A., Kanyanga, J. K., Kitoh, A., Kossin, J., Lau, N. C., Renwick, J., Stephenson, D. B., Xie, S. P., Zhou, T., Abraham, L., Ambrizzi, T., ... Zou, L. (2013). Climate phenomena and their relevance for future regional climate change. In Climate Change 2013 the Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Vol. 9781107057999, pp. 1217-1308). Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.028