Climate phenomena and their relevance for future regional climate change

Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen, Krishna Kumar Kanikicharla, Edvin Aldrian, Soon Il An, Iracema Fonseca Albuquerque Cavalcanti, Manuel de Castro, Wenjie Dong, Prashant Goswami, Alex Hall, Joseph Katongo Kanyanga, Akio Kitoh, James Kossin, Ngar Cheung Lau, James Renwick, David B. Stephenson, Shang Ping Xie, Tianjun Zhou, Libu Abraham, Tércio Ambrizzi, Bruce AndersonOsamu Arakawa, Raymond Arritt, Mark Baldwin, Mathew Barlow, David Barriopedro, Michela Biasutti, Sébastien Biner, David Bromwich, Josephine Brown, Wenju Cai, Leila V. Carvalho, Ping Chang, Xiaolong Chen, Jung Choi, Ole Bøssing Christensen, Clara Deser, Kerry Emanuel, Hirokazu Endo, David B. Enfield, Amato Evan, Alessandra Giannini, Nathan Gillett, Annamalai Hariharasubramanian, Ping Huang, Julie Jones, Ashok Karumuri, Jack Katzfey, Erik Kjellström, Jeff Knight, Thomas Knutson, Ashwini Kulkarni, Koteswara Rao Kundeti, William K. Lau, Geert Lenderink, Chris Lennard, Lai yung Ruby Leung, Renping Lin, Teresa Losada, Neil C. Mackellar, Victor Magaña, Gareth Marshall, Linda Mearns, Gerald Meehl, Claudio Menéndez, Hiroyuki Murakami, Mary Jo Nath, J. David Neelin, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Martin Olesen, Jan Polcher, Yun Qian, Suchanda Ray, Katharine Davis Reich, Belén Rodriguez de Fonseca, Paolo Ruti, James Screen, Jan Sedláček, Silvina Solman, Martin Stendel, Samantha Stevenson, Izuru Takayabu, John Turner, Caroline Ummenhofer, Kevin Walsh, Bin Wang, Chunzai Wang, Ian Watterson, Matthew Widlansky, Andrew Wittenberg, Tim Woollings, Sang Wook Yeh, Chidong Zhang, Lixia Zhang, Xiaotong Zheng, Liwei Zou

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter

524 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This chapter assesses the scientific literature on projected changes in major climate phenomena and more specifically their relevance for future change in regional climates, contingent on global mean temperatures continue to rise. Regional climates are the complex result of processes that vary strongly with location and so respond differently to changes in global-scale influences. The following large-scale climate phenomena are increasingly well simulated by climate models and so provide a scientific basis for understanding and developing credibility in future regional climate change. A phenomenon is considered relevant to regional climate change if there is confidence that it has influence on the regional climate and there is confidence that the phenomenon will change, particularly under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) or higher end scenarios. {Table 14.3} There is growing evidence of improved skill of climate models in reproducing climatological features of the global monsoon. Taken together with identified model agreement on future changes, the global monsoon, aggregated over all monsoon systems, is likely to strengthen in the 21st century with increases in its area and intensity, while the monsoon circulation weakens. Monsoon onset dates are likely to become earlier or not to change much and monsoon retreat dates are likely to delay, resulting in lengthening of the monsoon season in many regions.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationClimate Change 2013 the Physical Science Basis
Subtitle of host publicationWorking Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
PublisherCambridge University Press
Pages1217-1308
Number of pages92
Volume9781107057999
ISBN (Electronic)9781107415324
ISBN (Print)9781107057999
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2013 Jan 1

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monsoon
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twenty first century
temperature

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Christensen, J. H., Kanikicharla, K. K., Aldrian, E., An, S. I., Albuquerque Cavalcanti, I. F., de Castro, M., ... Zou, L. (2013). Climate phenomena and their relevance for future regional climate change. In Climate Change 2013 the Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Vol. 9781107057999, pp. 1217-1308). Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.028
Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg ; Kanikicharla, Krishna Kumar ; Aldrian, Edvin ; An, Soon Il ; Albuquerque Cavalcanti, Iracema Fonseca ; de Castro, Manuel ; Dong, Wenjie ; Goswami, Prashant ; Hall, Alex ; Kanyanga, Joseph Katongo ; Kitoh, Akio ; Kossin, James ; Lau, Ngar Cheung ; Renwick, James ; Stephenson, David B. ; Xie, Shang Ping ; Zhou, Tianjun ; Abraham, Libu ; Ambrizzi, Tércio ; Anderson, Bruce ; Arakawa, Osamu ; Arritt, Raymond ; Baldwin, Mark ; Barlow, Mathew ; Barriopedro, David ; Biasutti, Michela ; Biner, Sébastien ; Bromwich, David ; Brown, Josephine ; Cai, Wenju ; Carvalho, Leila V. ; Chang, Ping ; Chen, Xiaolong ; Choi, Jung ; Christensen, Ole Bøssing ; Deser, Clara ; Emanuel, Kerry ; Endo, Hirokazu ; Enfield, David B. ; Evan, Amato ; Giannini, Alessandra ; Gillett, Nathan ; Hariharasubramanian, Annamalai ; Huang, Ping ; Jones, Julie ; Karumuri, Ashok ; Katzfey, Jack ; Kjellström, Erik ; Knight, Jeff ; Knutson, Thomas ; Kulkarni, Ashwini ; Kundeti, Koteswara Rao ; Lau, William K. ; Lenderink, Geert ; Lennard, Chris ; Leung, Lai yung Ruby ; Lin, Renping ; Losada, Teresa ; Mackellar, Neil C. ; Magaña, Victor ; Marshall, Gareth ; Mearns, Linda ; Meehl, Gerald ; Menéndez, Claudio ; Murakami, Hiroyuki ; Nath, Mary Jo ; Neelin, J. David ; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan ; Olesen, Martin ; Polcher, Jan ; Qian, Yun ; Ray, Suchanda ; Reich, Katharine Davis ; de Fonseca, Belén Rodriguez ; Ruti, Paolo ; Screen, James ; Sedláček, Jan ; Solman, Silvina ; Stendel, Martin ; Stevenson, Samantha ; Takayabu, Izuru ; Turner, John ; Ummenhofer, Caroline ; Walsh, Kevin ; Wang, Bin ; Wang, Chunzai ; Watterson, Ian ; Widlansky, Matthew ; Wittenberg, Andrew ; Woollings, Tim ; Yeh, Sang Wook ; Zhang, Chidong ; Zhang, Lixia ; Zheng, Xiaotong ; Zou, Liwei. / Climate phenomena and their relevance for future regional climate change. Climate Change 2013 the Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Vol. 9781107057999 Cambridge University Press, 2013. pp. 1217-1308
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abstract = "This chapter assesses the scientific literature on projected changes in major climate phenomena and more specifically their relevance for future change in regional climates, contingent on global mean temperatures continue to rise. Regional climates are the complex result of processes that vary strongly with location and so respond differently to changes in global-scale influences. The following large-scale climate phenomena are increasingly well simulated by climate models and so provide a scientific basis for understanding and developing credibility in future regional climate change. A phenomenon is considered relevant to regional climate change if there is confidence that it has influence on the regional climate and there is confidence that the phenomenon will change, particularly under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) or higher end scenarios. {Table 14.3} There is growing evidence of improved skill of climate models in reproducing climatological features of the global monsoon. Taken together with identified model agreement on future changes, the global monsoon, aggregated over all monsoon systems, is likely to strengthen in the 21st century with increases in its area and intensity, while the monsoon circulation weakens. Monsoon onset dates are likely to become earlier or not to change much and monsoon retreat dates are likely to delay, resulting in lengthening of the monsoon season in many regions.",
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Christensen, JH, Kanikicharla, KK, Aldrian, E, An, SI, Albuquerque Cavalcanti, IF, de Castro, M, Dong, W, Goswami, P, Hall, A, Kanyanga, JK, Kitoh, A, Kossin, J, Lau, NC, Renwick, J, Stephenson, DB, Xie, SP, Zhou, T, Abraham, L, Ambrizzi, T, Anderson, B, Arakawa, O, Arritt, R, Baldwin, M, Barlow, M, Barriopedro, D, Biasutti, M, Biner, S, Bromwich, D, Brown, J, Cai, W, Carvalho, LV, Chang, P, Chen, X, Choi, J, Christensen, OB, Deser, C, Emanuel, K, Endo, H, Enfield, DB, Evan, A, Giannini, A, Gillett, N, Hariharasubramanian, A, Huang, P, Jones, J, Karumuri, A, Katzfey, J, Kjellström, E, Knight, J, Knutson, T, Kulkarni, A, Kundeti, KR, Lau, WK, Lenderink, G, Lennard, C, Leung, LYR, Lin, R, Losada, T, Mackellar, NC, Magaña, V, Marshall, G, Mearns, L, Meehl, G, Menéndez, C, Murakami, H, Nath, MJ, Neelin, JD, van Oldenborgh, GJ, Olesen, M, Polcher, J, Qian, Y, Ray, S, Reich, KD, de Fonseca, BR, Ruti, P, Screen, J, Sedláček, J, Solman, S, Stendel, M, Stevenson, S, Takayabu, I, Turner, J, Ummenhofer, C, Walsh, K, Wang, B, Wang, C, Watterson, I, Widlansky, M, Wittenberg, A, Woollings, T, Yeh, SW, Zhang, C, Zhang, L, Zheng, X & Zou, L 2013, Climate phenomena and their relevance for future regional climate change. in Climate Change 2013 the Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. vol. 9781107057999, Cambridge University Press, pp. 1217-1308. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.028

Climate phenomena and their relevance for future regional climate change. / Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg; Kanikicharla, Krishna Kumar; Aldrian, Edvin; An, Soon Il; Albuquerque Cavalcanti, Iracema Fonseca; de Castro, Manuel; Dong, Wenjie; Goswami, Prashant; Hall, Alex; Kanyanga, Joseph Katongo; Kitoh, Akio; Kossin, James; Lau, Ngar Cheung; Renwick, James; Stephenson, David B.; Xie, Shang Ping; Zhou, Tianjun; Abraham, Libu; Ambrizzi, Tércio; Anderson, Bruce; Arakawa, Osamu; Arritt, Raymond; Baldwin, Mark; Barlow, Mathew; Barriopedro, David; Biasutti, Michela; Biner, Sébastien; Bromwich, David; Brown, Josephine; Cai, Wenju; Carvalho, Leila V.; Chang, Ping; Chen, Xiaolong; Choi, Jung; Christensen, Ole Bøssing; Deser, Clara; Emanuel, Kerry; Endo, Hirokazu; Enfield, David B.; Evan, Amato; Giannini, Alessandra; Gillett, Nathan; Hariharasubramanian, Annamalai; Huang, Ping; Jones, Julie; Karumuri, Ashok; Katzfey, Jack; Kjellström, Erik; Knight, Jeff; Knutson, Thomas; Kulkarni, Ashwini; Kundeti, Koteswara Rao; Lau, William K.; Lenderink, Geert; Lennard, Chris; Leung, Lai yung Ruby; Lin, Renping; Losada, Teresa; Mackellar, Neil C.; Magaña, Victor; Marshall, Gareth; Mearns, Linda; Meehl, Gerald; Menéndez, Claudio; Murakami, Hiroyuki; Nath, Mary Jo; Neelin, J. David; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Olesen, Martin; Polcher, Jan; Qian, Yun; Ray, Suchanda; Reich, Katharine Davis; de Fonseca, Belén Rodriguez; Ruti, Paolo; Screen, James; Sedláček, Jan; Solman, Silvina; Stendel, Martin; Stevenson, Samantha; Takayabu, Izuru; Turner, John; Ummenhofer, Caroline; Walsh, Kevin; Wang, Bin; Wang, Chunzai; Watterson, Ian; Widlansky, Matthew; Wittenberg, Andrew; Woollings, Tim; Yeh, Sang Wook; Zhang, Chidong; Zhang, Lixia; Zheng, Xiaotong; Zou, Liwei.

Climate Change 2013 the Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Vol. 9781107057999 Cambridge University Press, 2013. p. 1217-1308.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter

TY - CHAP

T1 - Climate phenomena and their relevance for future regional climate change

AU - Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg

AU - Kanikicharla, Krishna Kumar

AU - Aldrian, Edvin

AU - An, Soon Il

AU - Albuquerque Cavalcanti, Iracema Fonseca

AU - de Castro, Manuel

AU - Dong, Wenjie

AU - Goswami, Prashant

AU - Hall, Alex

AU - Kanyanga, Joseph Katongo

AU - Kitoh, Akio

AU - Kossin, James

AU - Lau, Ngar Cheung

AU - Renwick, James

AU - Stephenson, David B.

AU - Xie, Shang Ping

AU - Zhou, Tianjun

AU - Abraham, Libu

AU - Ambrizzi, Tércio

AU - Anderson, Bruce

AU - Arakawa, Osamu

AU - Arritt, Raymond

AU - Baldwin, Mark

AU - Barlow, Mathew

AU - Barriopedro, David

AU - Biasutti, Michela

AU - Biner, Sébastien

AU - Bromwich, David

AU - Brown, Josephine

AU - Cai, Wenju

AU - Carvalho, Leila V.

AU - Chang, Ping

AU - Chen, Xiaolong

AU - Choi, Jung

AU - Christensen, Ole Bøssing

AU - Deser, Clara

AU - Emanuel, Kerry

AU - Endo, Hirokazu

AU - Enfield, David B.

AU - Evan, Amato

AU - Giannini, Alessandra

AU - Gillett, Nathan

AU - Hariharasubramanian, Annamalai

AU - Huang, Ping

AU - Jones, Julie

AU - Karumuri, Ashok

AU - Katzfey, Jack

AU - Kjellström, Erik

AU - Knight, Jeff

AU - Knutson, Thomas

AU - Kulkarni, Ashwini

AU - Kundeti, Koteswara Rao

AU - Lau, William K.

AU - Lenderink, Geert

AU - Lennard, Chris

AU - Leung, Lai yung Ruby

AU - Lin, Renping

AU - Losada, Teresa

AU - Mackellar, Neil C.

AU - Magaña, Victor

AU - Marshall, Gareth

AU - Mearns, Linda

AU - Meehl, Gerald

AU - Menéndez, Claudio

AU - Murakami, Hiroyuki

AU - Nath, Mary Jo

AU - Neelin, J. David

AU - van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan

AU - Olesen, Martin

AU - Polcher, Jan

AU - Qian, Yun

AU - Ray, Suchanda

AU - Reich, Katharine Davis

AU - de Fonseca, Belén Rodriguez

AU - Ruti, Paolo

AU - Screen, James

AU - Sedláček, Jan

AU - Solman, Silvina

AU - Stendel, Martin

AU - Stevenson, Samantha

AU - Takayabu, Izuru

AU - Turner, John

AU - Ummenhofer, Caroline

AU - Walsh, Kevin

AU - Wang, Bin

AU - Wang, Chunzai

AU - Watterson, Ian

AU - Widlansky, Matthew

AU - Wittenberg, Andrew

AU - Woollings, Tim

AU - Yeh, Sang Wook

AU - Zhang, Chidong

AU - Zhang, Lixia

AU - Zheng, Xiaotong

AU - Zou, Liwei

PY - 2013/1/1

Y1 - 2013/1/1

N2 - This chapter assesses the scientific literature on projected changes in major climate phenomena and more specifically their relevance for future change in regional climates, contingent on global mean temperatures continue to rise. Regional climates are the complex result of processes that vary strongly with location and so respond differently to changes in global-scale influences. The following large-scale climate phenomena are increasingly well simulated by climate models and so provide a scientific basis for understanding and developing credibility in future regional climate change. A phenomenon is considered relevant to regional climate change if there is confidence that it has influence on the regional climate and there is confidence that the phenomenon will change, particularly under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) or higher end scenarios. {Table 14.3} There is growing evidence of improved skill of climate models in reproducing climatological features of the global monsoon. Taken together with identified model agreement on future changes, the global monsoon, aggregated over all monsoon systems, is likely to strengthen in the 21st century with increases in its area and intensity, while the monsoon circulation weakens. Monsoon onset dates are likely to become earlier or not to change much and monsoon retreat dates are likely to delay, resulting in lengthening of the monsoon season in many regions.

AB - This chapter assesses the scientific literature on projected changes in major climate phenomena and more specifically their relevance for future change in regional climates, contingent on global mean temperatures continue to rise. Regional climates are the complex result of processes that vary strongly with location and so respond differently to changes in global-scale influences. The following large-scale climate phenomena are increasingly well simulated by climate models and so provide a scientific basis for understanding and developing credibility in future regional climate change. A phenomenon is considered relevant to regional climate change if there is confidence that it has influence on the regional climate and there is confidence that the phenomenon will change, particularly under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) or higher end scenarios. {Table 14.3} There is growing evidence of improved skill of climate models in reproducing climatological features of the global monsoon. Taken together with identified model agreement on future changes, the global monsoon, aggregated over all monsoon systems, is likely to strengthen in the 21st century with increases in its area and intensity, while the monsoon circulation weakens. Monsoon onset dates are likely to become earlier or not to change much and monsoon retreat dates are likely to delay, resulting in lengthening of the monsoon season in many regions.

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Christensen JH, Kanikicharla KK, Aldrian E, An SI, Albuquerque Cavalcanti IF, de Castro M et al. Climate phenomena and their relevance for future regional climate change. In Climate Change 2013 the Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Vol. 9781107057999. Cambridge University Press. 2013. p. 1217-1308 https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.028