Comparison of hepatic venous pressure gradient and two models of end-stage liver disease for predicting the survival in patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis

Ki Tae Suk, Chang Hoon Kim, Seung Ha Park, Ho Taik Sung, Jong Young Choi, Kwang Hyub Han, So Hyung Hong, Dae Yong Kim, Jai Hoon Yoon, Yeon Soo Kim, Gwang Ho Baik, Jin Bong Kim, Dong Joon Kim

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Abstract

Goals: We evaluated the efficacy of initial and follow-up hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG), models of end-stage liver disease (MELD), and MELD-Na for predicting the survival of patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis (LC). Background: MELD with/without Na score and HVPG have been important predictors of mortality in patients with LC. Study: Between January 2006 and 2011, a total of 57 patients with decompensated LC, all of whom underwent >2 HVPG measurements for the confirmation of propranolol dosing, were enrolled. MELD and MELD-Na scores were calculated on the day of HVPG measurement. The prognostic accuracy of the initial and follow-up HVPG, MELD, and MELD-Na were analyzed, and independent factors for mortality were evaluated. Results: Ten patients (17.5%) died from LC. Initial HVPG (0.883), initial MELD-Na (0.877), follow-up HVPG (0.829), and follow-up MELD-Na (0.802) showed good area under the receiver operating characteristic curve scores in predicting 1-year mortality. In predicting 2-year mortality, only follow-up HVPG (0.821, cut-off value 18 mm Hg) showed good score. Overall area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (initial and follow-up) were 0.843 and 0.864 in HVPG, 0.721 and 0.674 in MELD, and 0.762 and 0.715 in MELD-Na, respectively. In the Cox regression analysis, only follow-up HVPG (P=0.02; odds ratio, 1.11) was associated with mortality. Conclusions: The efficacy of HVPG for predicting mortality is excellent compared with that of MELD or MELD-Na. Therefore, aside from the confirmation of adequate propranolol dosing, HVPG may be needed for predicting the survival of patients with decompensated LC.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)880-886
Number of pages7
JournalJournal of Clinical Gastroenterology
Volume46
Issue number10
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2012 Nov

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Gastroenterology

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    Suk, K. T., Kim, C. H., Park, S. H., Sung, H. T., Choi, J. Y., Han, K. H., Hong, S. H., Kim, D. Y., Yoon, J. H., Kim, Y. S., Baik, G. H., Kim, J. B., & Kim, D. J. (2012). Comparison of hepatic venous pressure gradient and two models of end-stage liver disease for predicting the survival in patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis. Journal of Clinical Gastroenterology, 46(10), 880-886. https://doi.org/10.1097/MCG.0b013e31825f2622