Contracting strategy based on Markov process modeling

Sunju Park, Edmund H. Durfee

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaper

Abstract

A strategy to solve the problems of contractors in determining the optimal payment of a contract is presented. It is a four-step contracting strategy for computing probability of success, failure and payoffs of accomplishing a contract. First step is modeling future contracting process stochastically as a Markov process (MP). After the contract has been modelled, transition probabilities between MP states are then computed. The probability of success and failure, and the payoff of a contract can now be computed based on MP theory. Finally, the contractor uses a simple generate-and-test to find the optimal payment for the contract.

Original languageEnglish
Number of pages1
Publication statusPublished - 1996 Dec 1
EventProceedings of the 1996 13th National Conference on Artificial Intelligence. Part 2 (of 2) - Portland, OR, USA
Duration: 1996 Aug 41996 Aug 8

Conference

ConferenceProceedings of the 1996 13th National Conference on Artificial Intelligence. Part 2 (of 2)
CityPortland, OR, USA
Period96/8/496/8/8

Fingerprint

Markov processes
Contractors

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Software
  • Artificial Intelligence

Cite this

Park, S., & Durfee, E. H. (1996). Contracting strategy based on Markov process modeling. Paper presented at Proceedings of the 1996 13th National Conference on Artificial Intelligence. Part 2 (of 2), Portland, OR, USA, .
Park, Sunju ; Durfee, Edmund H. / Contracting strategy based on Markov process modeling. Paper presented at Proceedings of the 1996 13th National Conference on Artificial Intelligence. Part 2 (of 2), Portland, OR, USA, .1 p.
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Park, S & Durfee, EH 1996, 'Contracting strategy based on Markov process modeling', Paper presented at Proceedings of the 1996 13th National Conference on Artificial Intelligence. Part 2 (of 2), Portland, OR, USA, 96/8/4 - 96/8/8.

Contracting strategy based on Markov process modeling. / Park, Sunju; Durfee, Edmund H.

1996. Paper presented at Proceedings of the 1996 13th National Conference on Artificial Intelligence. Part 2 (of 2), Portland, OR, USA, .

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaper

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AU - Durfee, Edmund H.

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N2 - A strategy to solve the problems of contractors in determining the optimal payment of a contract is presented. It is a four-step contracting strategy for computing probability of success, failure and payoffs of accomplishing a contract. First step is modeling future contracting process stochastically as a Markov process (MP). After the contract has been modelled, transition probabilities between MP states are then computed. The probability of success and failure, and the payoff of a contract can now be computed based on MP theory. Finally, the contractor uses a simple generate-and-test to find the optimal payment for the contract.

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Park S, Durfee EH. Contracting strategy based on Markov process modeling. 1996. Paper presented at Proceedings of the 1996 13th National Conference on Artificial Intelligence. Part 2 (of 2), Portland, OR, USA, .