Design and validation of risk prediction model for hepatocellular carcinoma development after sustained virological response in patients with chronic hepatitis C

Ho Soo Chun, Beom Kyung Kim, Jun Yong Park, Do Young Kim, Sang Hoon Ahn, Kwang Hyub Han, Cheol Hyung Lee, Yun Bin Lee, Eun Ju Cho, Su Jong Yu, Yoon Jun Kim, Jung Hwan Yoon, Jeong Hoon Lee, Seung Up Kim

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

3 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Objectives Hepatocellular carcinoma can develop after hepatitis C virus eradication. We developed a new hepatocellular carcinoma risk score (HCC-SVR score) based on independent predictors for chronic hepatitis C after sustained virological response. Methods Between 2003 and 2016, a total of 1193 patients with chronic hepatitis C who achieved sustained virological response through antiviral therapy were included (669 for training cohort and 524 for validation cohort). The HCC-SVR score was developed using multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression modelling. Results Hepatocellular carcinoma (n = 19) occurred more frequently in older, male patients and was associated with liver cirrhosis; hypertension; diabetes; lower platelet count; higher alpha-fetoprotein, aspartate, and alanine aminotransferase; lower total cholesterol; and higher fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4) (all P < 0.05). FIB-4 (hazard ratio = 1.080), male gender (hazard ratio = 8.189), and higher alpha-fetoprotein (hazard ratio = 1.060) independently predicted hepatocellular carcinoma (all P < 0.05). HCC-SVR score successfully predicted hepatocellular carcinoma development risk [area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) = 0.771, 0.857, and 0.911 at 2, 4, and 6 years, respectively]. The cumulative incidence rate of hepatocellular carcinoma differed significantly among groups stratified by HCC-SVR risk score (0–2 points, low; 3–7 points, intermediate; 8–9 points, high risk) (all P < 0.05 by log-rank test). HCC-SVR score was maintained in a validation cohort (n = 524) (AUC = 0.728 at 2 years, 0.737 at 4 years, and 0.809 at 6 years). Conclusion The HCC-SVR score enables risk stratification for hepatocellular carcinoma development at sustained virological response in patients with chronic hepatitis C.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)378-385
Number of pages8
JournalEuropean Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology
DOIs
Publication statusAccepted/In press - 2020 Jan 1

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Hepatology
  • Gastroenterology

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