Detection and Prediction of House Price Bubbles: Evidence from a New City

Hanwool Jang; Kwangwon Ahn; Dongshin Kim; Yena Song

doi:10.1007/978-3-319-93713-7_76

Detection and Prediction of House Price Bubbles: Evidence from a New City

Hanwool Jang, Kwangwon Ahn, Dongshin Kim, Yena Song

Department of Industrial Engineering

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution

10 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

In the early stages of growth of a city, housing market fundamentals are uncertain. This could attract speculative investors as well as actual housing demand. Sejong is a recently built administrative city in South Korea. Most government departments and public agencies have moved into it, while others are in the process of moving or plan to do so. In Sejong, a drastic escalation in house prices has been noted over the last few years, but at the same time, the number of vacant housing units has increased. Using the present value model, lease-price ratio, and log-periodic power law, this study examines the bubbles in the Sejong housing market. The analysis results indicate that (i) there are significant house price bubbles, (ii) the bubbles are driven by speculative investment, and (iii) the bubbles are likely to burst earlier here than in other cities. The approach in this study can be applied to identifying pricing bubbles in other cities.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Computational Science – ICCS 2018 - 18th International Conference, Proceedings
Editors	Jack Dongarra, Haohuan Fu, Valeria V. Krzhizhanovskaya, Michael Harold Lees, Peter M. Sloot, Yong Shi, Yingjie Tian
Publisher	Springer Verlag
Pages	782-795
Number of pages	14
ISBN (Print)	9783319937120
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-93713-7_76
Publication status	Published - 2018
Event	18th International Conference on Computational Science, ICCS 2018 - Wuxi, China Duration: 2018 Jun 11 → 2018 Jun 13

Publication series

Name	Lecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics)
Volume	10862 LNCS
ISSN (Print)	0302-9743
ISSN (Electronic)	1611-3349

Conference

Conference	18th International Conference on Computational Science, ICCS 2018
Country/Territory	China
City	Wuxi
Period	18/6/11 → 18/6/13

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2018, Springer International Publishing AG, part of Springer Nature.

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

Theoretical Computer Science
Computer Science(all)

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Access to Document

10.1007/978-3-319-93713-7_76

Cite this

Jang, H., Ahn, K., Kim, D., & Song, Y. (2018). Detection and Prediction of House Price Bubbles: Evidence from a New City. In J. Dongarra, H. Fu, V. V. Krzhizhanovskaya, M. H. Lees, P. M. Sloot, Y. Shi, & Y. Tian (Eds.), Computational Science – ICCS 2018 - 18th International Conference, Proceedings (pp. 782-795). (Lecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics); Vol. 10862 LNCS). Springer Verlag. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-93713-7_76

Jang, Hanwool ; Ahn, Kwangwon ; Kim, Dongshin ; Song, Yena. / Detection and Prediction of House Price Bubbles : Evidence from a New City. Computational Science – ICCS 2018 - 18th International Conference, Proceedings. editor / Jack Dongarra ; Haohuan Fu ; Valeria V. Krzhizhanovskaya ; Michael Harold Lees ; Peter M. Sloot ; Yong Shi ; Yingjie Tian. Springer Verlag, 2018. pp. 782-795 (Lecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics)).

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abstract = "In the early stages of growth of a city, housing market fundamentals are uncertain. This could attract speculative investors as well as actual housing demand. Sejong is a recently built administrative city in South Korea. Most government departments and public agencies have moved into it, while others are in the process of moving or plan to do so. In Sejong, a drastic escalation in house prices has been noted over the last few years, but at the same time, the number of vacant housing units has increased. Using the present value model, lease-price ratio, and log-periodic power law, this study examines the bubbles in the Sejong housing market. The analysis results indicate that (i) there are significant house price bubbles, (ii) the bubbles are driven by speculative investment, and (iii) the bubbles are likely to burst earlier here than in other cities. The approach in this study can be applied to identifying pricing bubbles in other cities.",

author = "Hanwool Jang and Kwangwon Ahn and Dongshin Kim and Yena Song",

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Jang, H, Ahn, K, Kim, D & Song, Y 2018, Detection and Prediction of House Price Bubbles: Evidence from a New City. in J Dongarra, H Fu, VV Krzhizhanovskaya, MH Lees, PM Sloot, Y Shi & Y Tian (eds), Computational Science – ICCS 2018 - 18th International Conference, Proceedings. Lecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics), vol. 10862 LNCS, Springer Verlag, pp. 782-795, 18th International Conference on Computational Science, ICCS 2018, Wuxi, China, 18/6/11. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-93713-7_76

Detection and Prediction of House Price Bubbles : Evidence from a New City. / Jang, Hanwool; Ahn, Kwangwon; Kim, Dongshin; Song, Yena.

Computational Science – ICCS 2018 - 18th International Conference, Proceedings. ed. / Jack Dongarra; Haohuan Fu; Valeria V. Krzhizhanovskaya; Michael Harold Lees; Peter M. Sloot; Yong Shi; Yingjie Tian. Springer Verlag, 2018. p. 782-795 (Lecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics); Vol. 10862 LNCS).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution

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T1 - Detection and Prediction of House Price Bubbles

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AU - Ahn, Kwangwon

AU - Kim, Dongshin

AU - Song, Yena

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Y1 - 2018

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Jang H, Ahn K, Kim D, Song Y. Detection and Prediction of House Price Bubbles: Evidence from a New City. In Dongarra J, Fu H, Krzhizhanovskaya VV, Lees MH, Sloot PM, Shi Y, Tian Y, editors, Computational Science – ICCS 2018 - 18th International Conference, Proceedings. Springer Verlag. 2018. p. 782-795. (Lecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics)). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-93713-7_76

Detection and Prediction of House Price Bubbles: Evidence from a New City

Abstract

Publication series

Conference

Bibliographical note

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

UN SDGs

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