Development and application of chronic disease risk prediction models

Sun Min Oh, Katherine M. Stefani, Hyeon Chang Kim

Research output: Contribution to journalReview article

5 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Currently, non-communicable chronic diseases are a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide, and a large proportion of chronic diseases are preventable through risk factor management. However, the prevention efficacy at the individual level is not yet satisfactory. Chronic disease prediction models have been developed to assist physicians and individuals in clinical decision-making. A chronic disease prediction model assesses multiple risk factors together and estimates an absolute disease risk for the individual. Accurate prediction of an individual's future risk for a certain disease enables the comparison of benefits and risks of treatment, the costs of alternative prevention strategies, and selection of the most efficient strategy for the individual. A large number of chronic disease prediction models, especially targeting cardiovascular diseases and cancers, have been suggested, and some of them have been adopted in the clinical practice guidelines and recommendations of many countries. Although few chronic disease prediction tools have been suggested in the Korean population, their clinical utility is not as high as expected. This article reviews methodologies that are commonly used for developing and evaluating a chronic disease prediction model and discusses the current status of chronic disease prediction in Korea.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)853-860
Number of pages8
JournalYonsei medical journal
Volume55
Issue number4
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2014 Jul

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Chronic Disease
Risk Management
Korea
Practice Guidelines
Health Care Costs
Cardiovascular Diseases
Morbidity
Physicians
Mortality
Population
Neoplasms

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Medicine(all)

Cite this

Oh, Sun Min ; Stefani, Katherine M. ; Kim, Hyeon Chang. / Development and application of chronic disease risk prediction models. In: Yonsei medical journal. 2014 ; Vol. 55, No. 4. pp. 853-860.
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Development and application of chronic disease risk prediction models. / Oh, Sun Min; Stefani, Katherine M.; Kim, Hyeon Chang.

In: Yonsei medical journal, Vol. 55, No. 4, 07.2014, p. 853-860.

Research output: Contribution to journalReview article

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AU - Kim, Hyeon Chang

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AB - Currently, non-communicable chronic diseases are a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide, and a large proportion of chronic diseases are preventable through risk factor management. However, the prevention efficacy at the individual level is not yet satisfactory. Chronic disease prediction models have been developed to assist physicians and individuals in clinical decision-making. A chronic disease prediction model assesses multiple risk factors together and estimates an absolute disease risk for the individual. Accurate prediction of an individual's future risk for a certain disease enables the comparison of benefits and risks of treatment, the costs of alternative prevention strategies, and selection of the most efficient strategy for the individual. A large number of chronic disease prediction models, especially targeting cardiovascular diseases and cancers, have been suggested, and some of them have been adopted in the clinical practice guidelines and recommendations of many countries. Although few chronic disease prediction tools have been suggested in the Korean population, their clinical utility is not as high as expected. This article reviews methodologies that are commonly used for developing and evaluating a chronic disease prediction model and discusses the current status of chronic disease prediction in Korea.

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