TY - GEN
T1 - Effectiveness of high resolution GCM simulation for water resources prediction in Korea
AU - Jeong, Chang Sam
AU - Heo, Jun Haeng
PY - 2005
Y1 - 2005
N2 - Effectiveness of high and low resolution GCM information was analyzed using probabilistic diagnostic method for Korean water resources managements. The formulation based on the significance probability of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for detecting differences between target (observation) and indicator variable (GCM). AMIP-II (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project-II) type GCM simulations done by ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) were used for high resolution indicator variable and SMIP(Seasonal Prediction Model Intercomparison Project) type GCM simulations named Metri- AGCM(4°×5°) done by Korean Meteorological Agency (KMA) were used for low resolution indicator variable. The former has 2 and 2 degrees in longitude and latitude respectively and the latter has 4 and 5 degrees. Nodal surface precipitation and temperature values of both GCMs near 7 major river basins in Korea were used as indicator variables with analysis window concept. Observed mean areal precipitation and discharge values on each watershed were used for target variable. Monte Carlo simulations were used to establish the significant threshold of the estimator values. The results show that high resolution GCM is more significant to discriminate the extremes from target variables. It means that high resolution GCM can give more helpful information for water resources planning and managements. Considering this effectiveness, high resolution simulations are suggested for the future water resources management application in spite of various limitations of the present GCM simulations. Copyright ASCE 2005.
AB - Effectiveness of high and low resolution GCM information was analyzed using probabilistic diagnostic method for Korean water resources managements. The formulation based on the significance probability of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for detecting differences between target (observation) and indicator variable (GCM). AMIP-II (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project-II) type GCM simulations done by ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) were used for high resolution indicator variable and SMIP(Seasonal Prediction Model Intercomparison Project) type GCM simulations named Metri- AGCM(4°×5°) done by Korean Meteorological Agency (KMA) were used for low resolution indicator variable. The former has 2 and 2 degrees in longitude and latitude respectively and the latter has 4 and 5 degrees. Nodal surface precipitation and temperature values of both GCMs near 7 major river basins in Korea were used as indicator variables with analysis window concept. Observed mean areal precipitation and discharge values on each watershed were used for target variable. Monte Carlo simulations were used to establish the significant threshold of the estimator values. The results show that high resolution GCM is more significant to discriminate the extremes from target variables. It means that high resolution GCM can give more helpful information for water resources planning and managements. Considering this effectiveness, high resolution simulations are suggested for the future water resources management application in spite of various limitations of the present GCM simulations. Copyright ASCE 2005.
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U2 - 10.1061/40792(173)494
DO - 10.1061/40792(173)494
M3 - Conference contribution
AN - SCOPUS:37249004701
SN - 0784407924
SN - 9780784407929
T3 - World Water Congress 2005: Impacts of Global Climate Change - Proceedings of the 2005 World Water and Environmental Resources Congress
SP - 494
BT - World Water Congress 2005
T2 - 2005 World Water and Environmental Resources Congress
Y2 - 15 May 2005 through 19 May 2005
ER -