Estimating the future burden of multidrug-resistant and extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis in India, the Philippines, Russia, and South Africa

a mathematical modelling study

Global Preserving Effective TB Treatment Study Investigators

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

39 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Background Multidrug-resistant (MDR) and extensively drug-resistant (XDR) tuberculosis are emerging worldwide. The Green Light Committee initiative supported programmatic management of drug-resistant tuberculosis in 90 countries. We used estimates from the Preserving Effective TB Treatment Study to predict MDR and XDR tuberculosis trends in four countries with a high burden of MDR tuberculosis: India, the Philippines, Russia, and South Africa. Methods We calibrated a compartmental model to data from drug resistance surveys and WHO tuberculosis reports to forecast estimates of incident MDR and XDR tuberculosis and the percentage of incident MDR and XDR tuberculosis caused by acquired drug resistance, assuming no fitness cost of resistance from 2000 to 2040 in India, the Philippines, Russia, and South Africa. Findings The model forecasted the percentage of MDR tuberculosis among incident cases of tuberculosis to increase, reaching 12·4% (95% prediction interval 9·4–16·2) in India, 8·9% (4·5–11·7) in the Philippines, 32·5% (27·0–35·8) in Russia, and 5·7% (3·0–7·6) in South Africa in 2040. It also predicted the percentage of XDR tuberculosis among incident MDR tuberculosis to increase, reaching 8·9% (95% prediction interval 5·1–12·9) in India, 9·0% (4·0–14·7) in the Philippines, 9·0% (4·8–14·2) in Russia, and 8·5% (2·5–14·7) in South Africa in 2040. Acquired drug resistance would cause less than 30% of incident MDR tuberculosis during 2000–40. Acquired drug resistance caused 80% of incident XDR tuberculosis in 2000, but this estimate would decrease to less than 50% by 2040. Interpretation MDR and XDR tuberculosis were forecast to increase in all four countries despite improvements in acquired drug resistance shown by the Green Light Committee-supported programmatic management of drug-resistant tuberculosis. Additional control efforts beyond improving acquired drug resistance rates are needed to stop the spread of MDR and XDR tuberculosis in countries with a high burden of MDR tuberculosis. Funding US Agency for International Development and US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Division of Tuberculosis Elimination.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)707-715
Number of pages9
JournalThe Lancet Infectious Diseases
Volume17
Issue number7
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2017 Jul 1

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Extensively Drug-Resistant Tuberculosis
Multidrug-Resistant Tuberculosis
Philippines
Russia
South Africa
India
Drug Resistance
Tuberculosis
Methyl Green
United States Agency for International Development
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (U.S.)

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Infectious Diseases

Cite this

@article{8c45512007754486b3313c9ca9c55702,
title = "Estimating the future burden of multidrug-resistant and extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis in India, the Philippines, Russia, and South Africa: a mathematical modelling study",
abstract = "Background Multidrug-resistant (MDR) and extensively drug-resistant (XDR) tuberculosis are emerging worldwide. The Green Light Committee initiative supported programmatic management of drug-resistant tuberculosis in 90 countries. We used estimates from the Preserving Effective TB Treatment Study to predict MDR and XDR tuberculosis trends in four countries with a high burden of MDR tuberculosis: India, the Philippines, Russia, and South Africa. Methods We calibrated a compartmental model to data from drug resistance surveys and WHO tuberculosis reports to forecast estimates of incident MDR and XDR tuberculosis and the percentage of incident MDR and XDR tuberculosis caused by acquired drug resistance, assuming no fitness cost of resistance from 2000 to 2040 in India, the Philippines, Russia, and South Africa. Findings The model forecasted the percentage of MDR tuberculosis among incident cases of tuberculosis to increase, reaching 12·4{\%} (95{\%} prediction interval 9·4–16·2) in India, 8·9{\%} (4·5–11·7) in the Philippines, 32·5{\%} (27·0–35·8) in Russia, and 5·7{\%} (3·0–7·6) in South Africa in 2040. It also predicted the percentage of XDR tuberculosis among incident MDR tuberculosis to increase, reaching 8·9{\%} (95{\%} prediction interval 5·1–12·9) in India, 9·0{\%} (4·0–14·7) in the Philippines, 9·0{\%} (4·8–14·2) in Russia, and 8·5{\%} (2·5–14·7) in South Africa in 2040. Acquired drug resistance would cause less than 30{\%} of incident MDR tuberculosis during 2000–40. Acquired drug resistance caused 80{\%} of incident XDR tuberculosis in 2000, but this estimate would decrease to less than 50{\%} by 2040. Interpretation MDR and XDR tuberculosis were forecast to increase in all four countries despite improvements in acquired drug resistance shown by the Green Light Committee-supported programmatic management of drug-resistant tuberculosis. Additional control efforts beyond improving acquired drug resistance rates are needed to stop the spread of MDR and XDR tuberculosis in countries with a high burden of MDR tuberculosis. Funding US Agency for International Development and US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Division of Tuberculosis Elimination.",
author = "{Global Preserving Effective TB Treatment Study Investigators} and Aditya Sharma and Andrew Hill and Ekaterina Kurbatova and {van der Walt}, Martie and Charlotte Kvasnovsky and Tupasi, {Thelma E.} and Caoili, {Janice C.} and Gler, {Maria Tarcela} and Volchenkov, {Grigory V.} and Kazennyy, {Boris Y.} and Demikhova, {Olga V.} and Jaime Bayona and Carmen Contreras and Martin Yagui and Vaira Leimane and Sangnae Cho and Kim, {Hee Jin} and Kai Kliiman and Somsak Akksilp and Ruwen Jou and Julia Ershova and Tracy Dalton and Peter Cegielski",
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Estimating the future burden of multidrug-resistant and extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis in India, the Philippines, Russia, and South Africa : a mathematical modelling study. / Global Preserving Effective TB Treatment Study Investigators.

In: The Lancet Infectious Diseases, Vol. 17, No. 7, 01.07.2017, p. 707-715.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - Estimating the future burden of multidrug-resistant and extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis in India, the Philippines, Russia, and South Africa

T2 - a mathematical modelling study

AU - Global Preserving Effective TB Treatment Study Investigators

AU - Sharma, Aditya

AU - Hill, Andrew

AU - Kurbatova, Ekaterina

AU - van der Walt, Martie

AU - Kvasnovsky, Charlotte

AU - Tupasi, Thelma E.

AU - Caoili, Janice C.

AU - Gler, Maria Tarcela

AU - Volchenkov, Grigory V.

AU - Kazennyy, Boris Y.

AU - Demikhova, Olga V.

AU - Bayona, Jaime

AU - Contreras, Carmen

AU - Yagui, Martin

AU - Leimane, Vaira

AU - Cho, Sangnae

AU - Kim, Hee Jin

AU - Kliiman, Kai

AU - Akksilp, Somsak

AU - Jou, Ruwen

AU - Ershova, Julia

AU - Dalton, Tracy

AU - Cegielski, Peter

PY - 2017/7/1

Y1 - 2017/7/1

N2 - Background Multidrug-resistant (MDR) and extensively drug-resistant (XDR) tuberculosis are emerging worldwide. The Green Light Committee initiative supported programmatic management of drug-resistant tuberculosis in 90 countries. We used estimates from the Preserving Effective TB Treatment Study to predict MDR and XDR tuberculosis trends in four countries with a high burden of MDR tuberculosis: India, the Philippines, Russia, and South Africa. Methods We calibrated a compartmental model to data from drug resistance surveys and WHO tuberculosis reports to forecast estimates of incident MDR and XDR tuberculosis and the percentage of incident MDR and XDR tuberculosis caused by acquired drug resistance, assuming no fitness cost of resistance from 2000 to 2040 in India, the Philippines, Russia, and South Africa. Findings The model forecasted the percentage of MDR tuberculosis among incident cases of tuberculosis to increase, reaching 12·4% (95% prediction interval 9·4–16·2) in India, 8·9% (4·5–11·7) in the Philippines, 32·5% (27·0–35·8) in Russia, and 5·7% (3·0–7·6) in South Africa in 2040. It also predicted the percentage of XDR tuberculosis among incident MDR tuberculosis to increase, reaching 8·9% (95% prediction interval 5·1–12·9) in India, 9·0% (4·0–14·7) in the Philippines, 9·0% (4·8–14·2) in Russia, and 8·5% (2·5–14·7) in South Africa in 2040. Acquired drug resistance would cause less than 30% of incident MDR tuberculosis during 2000–40. Acquired drug resistance caused 80% of incident XDR tuberculosis in 2000, but this estimate would decrease to less than 50% by 2040. Interpretation MDR and XDR tuberculosis were forecast to increase in all four countries despite improvements in acquired drug resistance shown by the Green Light Committee-supported programmatic management of drug-resistant tuberculosis. Additional control efforts beyond improving acquired drug resistance rates are needed to stop the spread of MDR and XDR tuberculosis in countries with a high burden of MDR tuberculosis. Funding US Agency for International Development and US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Division of Tuberculosis Elimination.

AB - Background Multidrug-resistant (MDR) and extensively drug-resistant (XDR) tuberculosis are emerging worldwide. The Green Light Committee initiative supported programmatic management of drug-resistant tuberculosis in 90 countries. We used estimates from the Preserving Effective TB Treatment Study to predict MDR and XDR tuberculosis trends in four countries with a high burden of MDR tuberculosis: India, the Philippines, Russia, and South Africa. Methods We calibrated a compartmental model to data from drug resistance surveys and WHO tuberculosis reports to forecast estimates of incident MDR and XDR tuberculosis and the percentage of incident MDR and XDR tuberculosis caused by acquired drug resistance, assuming no fitness cost of resistance from 2000 to 2040 in India, the Philippines, Russia, and South Africa. Findings The model forecasted the percentage of MDR tuberculosis among incident cases of tuberculosis to increase, reaching 12·4% (95% prediction interval 9·4–16·2) in India, 8·9% (4·5–11·7) in the Philippines, 32·5% (27·0–35·8) in Russia, and 5·7% (3·0–7·6) in South Africa in 2040. It also predicted the percentage of XDR tuberculosis among incident MDR tuberculosis to increase, reaching 8·9% (95% prediction interval 5·1–12·9) in India, 9·0% (4·0–14·7) in the Philippines, 9·0% (4·8–14·2) in Russia, and 8·5% (2·5–14·7) in South Africa in 2040. Acquired drug resistance would cause less than 30% of incident MDR tuberculosis during 2000–40. Acquired drug resistance caused 80% of incident XDR tuberculosis in 2000, but this estimate would decrease to less than 50% by 2040. Interpretation MDR and XDR tuberculosis were forecast to increase in all four countries despite improvements in acquired drug resistance shown by the Green Light Committee-supported programmatic management of drug-resistant tuberculosis. Additional control efforts beyond improving acquired drug resistance rates are needed to stop the spread of MDR and XDR tuberculosis in countries with a high burden of MDR tuberculosis. Funding US Agency for International Development and US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Division of Tuberculosis Elimination.

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EP - 715

JO - The Lancet Infectious Diseases

JF - The Lancet Infectious Diseases

SN - 1473-3099

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