Estimation of global case fatality rate of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) using meta-analyses: Comparison between calendar date and days since the outbreak of the first confirmed case

Ramy Abou Ghayda, Keum Hwa Lee, Young Joo Han, Seohyun Ryu, Sung Hwi Hong, Sojung Yoon, Gwang Hun Jeong, Jinhee Lee, Jun Young Lee, Jae Won Yang, Maria Effenberger, Michael Eisenhut, Andreas Kronbichler, Marco Solmi, Han Li, Louis Jacob, Ai Koyanagi, Joaquim Radua, Jae Il Shin, Lee Smith

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

11 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Objective: Since the outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in December of 2019 in China, estimating the pandemic's case fatality rate (CFR) has been the focus and interest of many stakeholders. In this manuscript, we prove that the method of using the cumulative CFR is static and does not reflect the trend according to the daily change per unit of time. Methods: A proportion meta-analysis was carried out on the CFR in every country reporting COVID-19 cases. Based on these results, we performed a meta-analysis for a global COVID-19 CFR. Each analysis was performed using two different calculations of CFR: according to the calendar date and according to the days since the outbreak of the first confirmed case. We thus explored an innovative and original calculation of CFR, concurrently based on the date of the first confirmed case as well as on a daily basis. Results: For the first time, we showed that using meta-analyses according to the calendar date and days since the outbreak of the first confirmed case, were different. Conclusion: We propose that a CFR according to days since the outbreak of the first confirmed case might be a better predictor of the current CFR of COVID-19 and its kinetics.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)302-308
Number of pages7
JournalInternational Journal of Infectious Diseases
Volume100
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2020 Nov

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2020 The Authors

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Microbiology (medical)
  • Infectious Diseases

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