Evaluation of Intervention Policies for the COVID-19 Epidemic in the Seoul/Gyeonggi Region through a Model Simulation

Jeongjoo Seok, Yunjeong Lee, Jun Yong Choi, Jae Phil Choi, Haesook Seo, Seul Lee, Jeehyun Lee

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


Purpose: To evaluate the efficacy of intervention policies on coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) dissemination. Materials and Methods: An age-structured compartmental model for the COVID-19 outbreak was proposed to predict the impact of control measures in the Seoul/Gyeonggi region. The model was calibrated based on actual data and realistic situations, including daily vaccine doses, proportion of delta variant cases, and confirmed cases by age. We simulated different scenarios for non-pharmaceutical interventions by varying social distancing and school attendance strategies. Results: Two-step mitigation of social distancing without in-person classes would result in a rapid increase in confirmed cases up to 10000 but would keep severe cases within the manageable range of the health care system. The overall impact of taking down the distancing level by one step with twice the increase in contacts at school was comparable to the above scenario. Implementation of two-step mitigation of social distancing along with a two-fold increase in contacts among the school-age group would dra-matically increase confirmed and severe cases by over 80000 and 100, respectively, as early as the beginning of December. This policy would cause the situation to spiral out of control, considering the scale of the response and time to prepare. On the other hand, the burden on the current healthcare system caused by two-step mitigation of social distancing and 40% increased contacts in the school-age group was manageable if prepared. Conclusion: A compromise between social distancing and school attendance policy and timely preparations for the spread of COVID-19 are required.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)707-716
Number of pages10
JournalYonsei medical journal
Issue number8
Publication statusPublished - 2022 Aug

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
The work of Jeehyun Lee was supported by a government-wide R&D Fund project for infectious disease research through GFID, funded by seven ministries (grant numbers: HG20C0003 and 2020R1A2C1A01010775).

Publisher Copyright:
© 2022, Yonsei University College of Medicine.

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Medicine(all)


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