Evaluation of wind forecasts over Svalbard using the high-resolution Polar WRF with 3DVAR

Dae Hui Kim, Hyun Mee Kim, Jinkyu Hong

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

In this study, the performance of wind forecasts over Svalbard, located between the Arctic Ocean and the Norwegian Sea, was evaluated using the Polar Weather Research and Forecasting (PWRF) model and three-dimensional variational data assimilation (DA) system. The forecasts of the analysis–forecast cycling experiment using the PWRF 3DVAR were compared with those of the cold start experiment using reanalysis as the initial condition. Three strong wind cases that occurred during January and February 2011–2012 were selected, where polar lows were generated on the east coast of Greenland and generated a wind speed above 20 m s−1 in Svalbard. The wind speed forecasts for both cycling and cold start experiments were similar to the highest 10-minute average wind speed for the last 1 hour (HAW). The average root mean square error (RMSE) of the forecasts in the cold start experiment from HAW was 3.78 m s−1 for three cases and was greater than that in the cycling experiment. The forecast performance in the cycling experiment was comparable to, or even better than, that in the cold start experiment, which implies that the cycling system with DA is more useful than the cold start system in forecasting polar weather to support research activities.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)471-489
Number of pages19
JournalArctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research
Volume51
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2019 Jan 1

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wind speed
weather
experiment
wind velocity
data assimilation
research support
Greenland
Arctic region
forecast
evaluation
coasts
cold
coast
Norwegian Sea

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Global and Planetary Change
  • Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics
  • Earth-Surface Processes

Cite this

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Evaluation of wind forecasts over Svalbard using the high-resolution Polar WRF with 3DVAR. / Kim, Dae Hui; Kim, Hyun Mee; Hong, Jinkyu.

In: Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research, Vol. 51, No. 1, 01.01.2019, p. 471-489.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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