The forecast skill of upper-level turbulence diagnostics is evaluated using available turbulence observations [viz., pilot reports (PIREPs)] over East Asia. The six years (2003-08) of PIREPs used in this study include null, light, and moderate-or-greater intensity categories. The turbulence diagnostics used are a subset of indices in the Graphical Turbulence Guidance (GTG) system. To investigate the optimal performance of the component GTG diagnostics and GTG combinations over East Asia, various statistical evaluations and sensitivity tests are performed. To examine the dependency of the GTG system on the operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) model, the GTG system is applied to both the Regional Data Assimilation and Prediction System (RDAPS) analysis data and Global Forecasting System (GFS) analysis and forecast data with 30-km and 0.3125° (T382) horizontal grid spacings. The dependency of the temporal variation in the PIREP and GFS data and the forecast lead time of the GFS-based GTG combination are also investigated. It is found that the forecasting performance of the GTG system varies with year and season according to the annual and seasonal variations in the large-scale atmospheric conditions over the East Asia region. The wintertime GTG skill is the highest, because most GTG component diagnostics are related to jet streams and upper-level fronts. TheGTGskill improves as the number of PIREP samples and the vertical resolution of the underlying NWP analysis data increase, and the GTG performance decreases as the forecast lead time increases from 0 to 12 h.
All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes
- Atmospheric Science