Evaluations of upper-level turbulence diagnostics performance using the Graphical Turbulence Guidance (GTG) system and Pilot Reports (PIREPs) over East Asia

Jung Hoon Kim, Hye-Yeong Chun, Robert D. Sharman, Teddie L. Keller

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

17 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The forecast skill of upper-level turbulence diagnostics is evaluated using available turbulence observations [viz., pilot reports (PIREPs)] over East Asia. The six years (2003-08) of PIREPs used in this study include null, light, and moderate-or-greater intensity categories. The turbulence diagnostics used are a subset of indices in the Graphical Turbulence Guidance (GTG) system. To investigate the optimal performance of the component GTG diagnostics and GTG combinations over East Asia, various statistical evaluations and sensitivity tests are performed. To examine the dependency of the GTG system on the operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) model, the GTG system is applied to both the Regional Data Assimilation and Prediction System (RDAPS) analysis data and Global Forecasting System (GFS) analysis and forecast data with 30-km and 0.3125° (T382) horizontal grid spacings. The dependency of the temporal variation in the PIREP and GFS data and the forecast lead time of the GFS-based GTG combination are also investigated. It is found that the forecasting performance of the GTG system varies with year and season according to the annual and seasonal variations in the large-scale atmospheric conditions over the East Asia region. The wintertime GTG skill is the highest, because most GTG component diagnostics are related to jet streams and upper-level fronts. TheGTGskill improves as the number of PIREP samples and the vertical resolution of the underlying NWP analysis data increase, and the GTG performance decreases as the forecast lead time increases from 0 to 12 h.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1936-1951
Number of pages16
JournalJournal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
Volume50
Issue number9
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2011 Sep 1

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turbulence
systems analysis
Asia
evaluation
prediction
weather
jet stream
data assimilation
annual variation
spacing
temporal variation
seasonal variation
forecast

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Atmospheric Science

Cite this

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Evaluations of upper-level turbulence diagnostics performance using the Graphical Turbulence Guidance (GTG) system and Pilot Reports (PIREPs) over East Asia. / Kim, Jung Hoon; Chun, Hye-Yeong; Sharman, Robert D.; Keller, Teddie L.

In: Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, Vol. 50, No. 9, 01.09.2011, p. 1936-1951.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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