External validation of nomogram for the prediction of recurrence after curative resection in early gastric cancer

J. H. Kim, H. S. Kim, W. Y. Seo, C. M. Nam, K. Y. Kim, H. C. Jeung, J. F. Lai, H. C. Chung, S. H. Noh, S. Y. Rha

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34 Citations (Scopus)


Background: Nomograms are statistics-based tools that provide the overall probability of a specific outcome. In our previous study, we developed a nomogram that predicts recurrence of early gastric cancer (EGC) after curative resection. We carried out this study to externally validate our EGC nomogram. Patients and methods: The EGC nomogram was established from a retrospective EGC database that included 2923 consecutive patients. This nomogram was independently externally validated for a cohort of 1058 consecutive patients. For the EGC nomogram validation, we assessed both discrimination and calibration. Results: Within the follow-up period (median 37 months), a total of 11 patients (1.1%) experienced recurrence. The concordance index (c-index) was 0.7 (P = 0.02) and the result of the overall C index was 0.82 [P = 0.006, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.59-1.00]. The goodness of fit test showed that the EGC nomogram had significantly good fit for 1- and 2-year survival intervals (P = 0.998 and 0.879, respectively). The actual and predicted survival outcomes showed good agreement, suggesting that the survival predictions from the nomogram are well calibrated externally. Conclusions: A preexisting nomogram for predicting disease-free survival (DFS) of EGC after surgery was externally validated. The nomogram is useful for accurate and individual prediction of DFS, patient prognostication, counseling, and follow-up planning.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)361-367
Number of pages7
JournalAnnals of Oncology
Issue number2
Publication statusPublished - 2012 Feb

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Hematology
  • Oncology


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