Forecasting Naphtha Price Crack Using Multiple Regression Analysis

Chaeeun Sung, Hweeung Kwon, Jinsuk Lee, Haesub Yoon, il Moon

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

6 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The price of naphtha depends on that of crude oil as naphtha is produced by refining crude oil. Naphtha plays an important role as one of basic petrochemicals for downstream products. Large fluctuation of naphtha price has been intensified along with recent political unrest of Middle East Asia and the growing naphtha demand in developing countries. Thus forecasting naphtha price is becoming more uncertain. The development of models for forecasting naphtha crack (price difference between naphtha and crude oil) will help minimize any loss from naphtha price variations. This study is concerned with the derivation of a set of major parameters affecting naphtha prices and the identification of the most dominating factors. We proposed a model for forecasting naphtha crack based on statistical approach and multiple regression analysis, and R 2 was 651. .Naphtha price depends mainly on Asia supply and demand of naphtha as well as naphtha substitute and margin. Actual and predicted variations of naphtha crack were also analyzed. The proposed modeling approach can be extended to forecast prices of other downstream chemicals such as LPG and NGL.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)145-149
Number of pages5
JournalComputer Aided Chemical Engineering
Volume31
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2012 Aug 7

Fingerprint

Naphthas
Regression analysis
Cracks
Petroleum
Crude oil
naphtha
Penicillin G Benzathine
Liquefied petroleum gas
Developing countries
Petrochemicals
Refining

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Chemical Engineering(all)
  • Computer Science Applications

Cite this

Sung, Chaeeun ; Kwon, Hweeung ; Lee, Jinsuk ; Yoon, Haesub ; Moon, il. / Forecasting Naphtha Price Crack Using Multiple Regression Analysis. In: Computer Aided Chemical Engineering. 2012 ; Vol. 31. pp. 145-149.
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Forecasting Naphtha Price Crack Using Multiple Regression Analysis. / Sung, Chaeeun; Kwon, Hweeung; Lee, Jinsuk; Yoon, Haesub; Moon, il.

In: Computer Aided Chemical Engineering, Vol. 31, 07.08.2012, p. 145-149.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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