Forecasting new product diffusion using both patent citation and web search traffic

Won Sang Lee, Hyo Shin Choi, So Young Sohn

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

Accurate demand forecasting for new technology products is a key factor in the success of a business. We propose a way to forecasting a new product’s diffusion through technology diffusion and interest diffusion. Technology diffusion and interest diffusion are measured by the volume of patent citations and web search traffic, respectively. We apply the proposed method to forecast the sales of hybrid cars and industrial robots in the US market. The results show that that technology diffusion, as represented by patent citations, can explain long-term sales for hybrid cars and industrial robots. On the other hand, interest diffusion, as represented by web search traffic, can help to improve the predictability of market sales of hybrid cars in the short-term. However, interest diffusion is difficult to explain the sales of industrial robots due to the different market characteristics. Finding indicates our proposed model can relatively well explain the diffusion of consumer goods.

Original languageEnglish
Article numbere0194723
JournalPloS one
Volume13
Issue number4
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2018 Apr 1

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new products
patents
traffic
sales
robots
Industrial robots
Sales
Technology
Railroad cars
markets

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology(all)
  • Agricultural and Biological Sciences(all)

Cite this

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title = "Forecasting new product diffusion using both patent citation and web search traffic",
abstract = "Accurate demand forecasting for new technology products is a key factor in the success of a business. We propose a way to forecasting a new product’s diffusion through technology diffusion and interest diffusion. Technology diffusion and interest diffusion are measured by the volume of patent citations and web search traffic, respectively. We apply the proposed method to forecast the sales of hybrid cars and industrial robots in the US market. The results show that that technology diffusion, as represented by patent citations, can explain long-term sales for hybrid cars and industrial robots. On the other hand, interest diffusion, as represented by web search traffic, can help to improve the predictability of market sales of hybrid cars in the short-term. However, interest diffusion is difficult to explain the sales of industrial robots due to the different market characteristics. Finding indicates our proposed model can relatively well explain the diffusion of consumer goods.",
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Forecasting new product diffusion using both patent citation and web search traffic. / Lee, Won Sang; Choi, Hyo Shin; Sohn, So Young.

In: PloS one, Vol. 13, No. 4, e0194723, 01.04.2018.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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