Hysteresis Behaviors in East Asian Extreme Precipitation Frequency to CO2 Pathway

Seo Young Jo; Min Gyu Seong; Seung Ki Min; Jong Seong Kug; Sang Wook Yeh; Soon Il An; Seok Woo Son; Jongsoo Shin

doi:10.1029/2022GL099814

Hysteresis Behaviors in East Asian Extreme Precipitation Frequency to CO₂ Pathway

Seo Young Jo, Min Gyu Seong, Seung Ki Min, Jong Seong Kug, Sang Wook Yeh, Soon Il An, Seok Woo Son, Jongsoo Shin

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

Understanding regional hydro-climatic extreme responses to CO₂ pathways is fundamental to climate change mitigation and adaptation. This study evaluates responses of extreme precipitation frequency (R30mm: days with precipitation ≥30 mm) over East Asia to idealized CO₂ forcing using the Community Earth System Model (CESM1). Under a symmetric increase (ramp-up, +1% per year until quadrupling level) and decrease (ramp-down, about −1% per year back to the present level) of CO₂ concentrations, East Asian R30mm shows an asymmetric response with higher frequency during the ramp-down period. This hysteresis behavior is found to be due to a northwestward propagating wave response to the El Niño-like warming, which induces a three-cell (positive-negative-positive) R30mm difference pattern from central equatorial Pacific to East Asia. Monthly analysis further reveals that this asymmetry has a seasonal locking, occurring during July–September only, constrained by the background precipitation climatology over the sub-tropical western Pacific.

Original language	English
Article number	e2022GL099814
Journal	Geophysical Research Letters
Volume	49
Issue number	18
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL099814
Publication status	Published - 2022 Sept 28

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
We thank two anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments. This work was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) grant (NRF‐2018R1A5A1024958) and the Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program under Grant KMI2022‐01313. The CESM simulation was carried out on the supercomputer supported by the National Center for Meteorological Supercomputer of Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), the National Supercomputing center with supercomputing resources, associated technical support (KSC‐2019‐CHA‐0005), and the Korea Research Environment Open NETwork (KREONET).

Publisher Copyright:
© 2022. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

Geophysics
Earth and Planetary Sciences(all)

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Access to Document

10.1029/2022GL099814

Cite this

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title = "Hysteresis Behaviors in East Asian Extreme Precipitation Frequency to CO2 Pathway",

abstract = "Understanding regional hydro-climatic extreme responses to CO2 pathways is fundamental to climate change mitigation and adaptation. This study evaluates responses of extreme precipitation frequency (R30mm: days with precipitation ≥30 mm) over East Asia to idealized CO2 forcing using the Community Earth System Model (CESM1). Under a symmetric increase (ramp-up, +1% per year until quadrupling level) and decrease (ramp-down, about −1% per year back to the present level) of CO2 concentrations, East Asian R30mm shows an asymmetric response with higher frequency during the ramp-down period. This hysteresis behavior is found to be due to a northwestward propagating wave response to the El Ni{\~n}o-like warming, which induces a three-cell (positive-negative-positive) R30mm difference pattern from central equatorial Pacific to East Asia. Monthly analysis further reveals that this asymmetry has a seasonal locking, occurring during July–September only, constrained by the background precipitation climatology over the sub-tropical western Pacific.",

author = "Jo, {Seo Young} and Seong, {Min Gyu} and Min, {Seung Ki} and Kug, {Jong Seong} and Yeh, {Sang Wook} and An, {Soon Il} and Son, {Seok Woo} and Jongsoo Shin",

note = "Funding Information: We thank two anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments. This work was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) grant (NRF‐2018R1A5A1024958) and the Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program under Grant KMI2022‐01313. The CESM simulation was carried out on the supercomputer supported by the National Center for Meteorological Supercomputer of Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), the National Supercomputing center with supercomputing resources, associated technical support (KSC‐2019‐CHA‐0005), and the Korea Research Environment Open NETwork (KREONET). Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2022. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.",

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AU - Seong, Min Gyu

AU - Min, Seung Ki

AU - Kug, Jong Seong

AU - Yeh, Sang Wook

AU - An, Soon Il

AU - Son, Seok Woo

AU - Shin, Jongsoo

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N2 - Understanding regional hydro-climatic extreme responses to CO2 pathways is fundamental to climate change mitigation and adaptation. This study evaluates responses of extreme precipitation frequency (R30mm: days with precipitation ≥30 mm) over East Asia to idealized CO2 forcing using the Community Earth System Model (CESM1). Under a symmetric increase (ramp-up, +1% per year until quadrupling level) and decrease (ramp-down, about −1% per year back to the present level) of CO2 concentrations, East Asian R30mm shows an asymmetric response with higher frequency during the ramp-down period. This hysteresis behavior is found to be due to a northwestward propagating wave response to the El Niño-like warming, which induces a three-cell (positive-negative-positive) R30mm difference pattern from central equatorial Pacific to East Asia. Monthly analysis further reveals that this asymmetry has a seasonal locking, occurring during July–September only, constrained by the background precipitation climatology over the sub-tropical western Pacific.

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