Hysteresis Behaviors in East Asian Extreme Precipitation Frequency to CO2 Pathway

Seo Young Jo, Min Gyu Seong, Seung Ki Min, Jong Seong Kug, Sang Wook Yeh, Soon Il An, Seok Woo Son, Jongsoo Shin

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


Understanding regional hydro-climatic extreme responses to CO2 pathways is fundamental to climate change mitigation and adaptation. This study evaluates responses of extreme precipitation frequency (R30mm: days with precipitation ≥30 mm) over East Asia to idealized CO2 forcing using the Community Earth System Model (CESM1). Under a symmetric increase (ramp-up, +1% per year until quadrupling level) and decrease (ramp-down, about −1% per year back to the present level) of CO2 concentrations, East Asian R30mm shows an asymmetric response with higher frequency during the ramp-down period. This hysteresis behavior is found to be due to a northwestward propagating wave response to the El Niño-like warming, which induces a three-cell (positive-negative-positive) R30mm difference pattern from central equatorial Pacific to East Asia. Monthly analysis further reveals that this asymmetry has a seasonal locking, occurring during July–September only, constrained by the background precipitation climatology over the sub-tropical western Pacific.

Original languageEnglish
Article numbere2022GL099814
JournalGeophysical Research Letters
Issue number18
Publication statusPublished - 2022 Sept 28

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
We thank two anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments. This work was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) grant (NRF‐2018R1A5A1024958) and the Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program under Grant KMI2022‐01313. The CESM simulation was carried out on the supercomputer supported by the National Center for Meteorological Supercomputer of Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), the National Supercomputing center with supercomputing resources, associated technical support (KSC‐2019‐CHA‐0005), and the Korea Research Environment Open NETwork (KREONET).

Publisher Copyright:
© 2022. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Geophysics
  • Earth and Planetary Sciences(all)


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