Aim: Risk prediction models for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development are available. However, the influence of antiviral therapy (AVT) on these models in patients with chronic hepatitis B is unknown. Methods: The dynamic changes in risk prediction models during AVT and the association between risk prediction model and the risk of chronic hepatitis B-related HCC development were investigated. Between 2005 and 2017, 4917 patients with chronic hepatitis B (3361 noncirrhotic, 1556 cirrhotic) were recruited. Results: The mean age of the study population was 49.3 years and 60.6% (n = 2980) of the patients were male. The mean Chinese University-HCC (CU-HCC) score was 12.7 at baseline in the overall study population, and decreased significantly (mean, 8.7) after 1 year of AVT (p < 0.001). The score was maintained throughout 5 years of AVT (mean, 8.4–8.8; p > 0.05). The proportion of high-risk patients (CU-HCC score ≥ 20) was 28.9% at baseline, and decreased significantly after 1 year of AVT (5.0%; p < 0.001), and remained stable through 5 years of AVT (2.2%–3.6%; p > 0.05). In addition to the score at baseline, the CU-HCC score at 1 year of AVT independently predicted the risk of HCC development (hazard ratio = 1.072; p < 0.001), together with male gender and platelet count (all p < 0.05). Conclusions: The CU-HCC score significantly decreased at 1 year of AVT and was maintained thereafter. The CU-HCC score after 1 year of AVT independently predicted the risk of HCC development in patients with chronic hepatitis B.
Bibliographical noteFunding Information:
This study was supported by the Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT & Future Planning (2019R1A2C4070136). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.
© 2020 The Japan Society of Hepatology
All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes
- Infectious Diseases