Individual prediction model for lamivudine treatment response in hepatitis B virus e antigen-positive chronic hepatitis B patients

Hyun Woong Lee, Wonseok Kang, Sang Hoon Ahn, Heon Ju Lee, Jae Seok Hwang, Joo Hyun Sohn, Jae Young Jang, Ki Jun Han, Ja Kyung Kim, Do Young Kim, Yong Han Paik, Chun Kyon Lee, Ik Seong Choi, Kwan Sik Lee, Kwang Hyub Han

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

4 Citations (Scopus)


Background and Aims: Although prolonged lamivudine (LAM) therapy is associated with the emergence of LAM-resistant mutations, it is still a commonly used therapy in many Asian countries because of its established long-term safety and low cost. The aim of our study was to assess the predictors of long-term LAM treatment response and to establish an individual prediction model (IPM) for hepatitis B virus e antigen (HBeAg) seroconversion in HBeAg-positive chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients. Methods: This was a multicenter analysis of 838 patients treated with LAM between January 1999 and August 2004. Of these, 748 patients were followed up for at least 24 months. Results: The median age was 43.0 years (range, 19-79 years) and the mean duration of LAM monotherapy was 34.2±0.7 months. In the multivariate analysis, age (odds ratio [OR]=0.974, P<0.001), baseline alanine aminotransferase level (OR=1.001, P=0.014), and baseline hepatitis B virus DNA level (OR=0.749, P<0.001) were independent factors for HBeAg seroconversion. Based on the predictors, an IPM was established. Patients were classified into high (>50%), intermediate (30-50%), or low (≤30%) response groups based on their probability of HBeAg seroconversion according to the IPM. The cumulative HBeAg seroconversion rate at 6 years for the high, intermediate, and low response groups was 66.0%, 48.5%, and 21.8%, respectively (P<0.001). Conclusions: An IPM was developed based on predictors of HBeAg seroconversion in HBeAg-positive CHB patients on LAM monotherapy. This model will allow screening of LAM responders prior to the commencement of antiviral treatment.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1049-1055
Number of pages7
JournalJournal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology (Australia)
Issue number5
Publication statusPublished - 2014 May

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Hepatology
  • Gastroenterology


Dive into the research topics of 'Individual prediction model for lamivudine treatment response in hepatitis B virus e antigen-positive chronic hepatitis B patients'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this