Inter-Model Differences in Future Summer Onset Over the Northern High Latitudes

Bo Joung Park; Seung Ki Min; Young Hee Ryu

doi:10.1029/2022GL100739

Inter-Model Differences in Future Summer Onset Over the Northern High Latitudes

Bo Joung Park, Seung Ki Min, Young Hee Ryu

Department of Atmospheric Sciences

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

Climate models consistently project a significant advance of summer onset over the Northern high latitude lands in the late 21st century. However, large inter-model differences exist, in particular, over Northwest Russia, Bering Sea region and Northeastern Canada. This study quantifies the influences of background global warming rate and regional snow-albedo feedback on the inter-model spreads in summer onset projections. Linear regression analysis reveals that models' transient climate response (TCR) values explain around 39%–50% of regional inter-model variances, indicating the dominant contribution of models' global warming rate. When removing TCR influences, the summer onset and snow cover exhibit significant inter-model correlations over Bering Sea region and Northeastern Canada, explaining 25%–30% of the inter-model variances. These results suggest that global climate sensitivity as well as regional snow-albedo feedback need to be considered for reliable projection of future summer season timing at regional scales.

Original language	English
Article number	e2022GL100739
Journal	Geophysical Research Letters
Volume	49
Issue number	24
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL100739
Publication status	Published - 2022 Dec 28

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
This study was supported by National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) grant funded by the Korean government (MSIT) (NRF2021R1A2C3007366) and the Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program under Grant KMI2021‐00912. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme, which, through its Working Group on Coupled Modeling, coordinated and promoted CMIP6. We thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making available their model output, the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) for archiving the data and providing access ( https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/projects/cmip6/ ), and the multiple funding agencies that support CMIP6 and ESGF.

Funding Information:
This study was supported by National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) grant funded by the Korean government (MSIT) (NRF2021R1A2C3007366) and the Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program under Grant KMI2021-00912. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme, which, through its Working Group on Coupled Modeling, coordinated and promoted CMIP6. We thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making available their model output, the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) for archiving the data and providing access (https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/projects/cmip6/), and the multiple funding agencies that support CMIP6 and ESGF.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 The Authors.

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

Geophysics
Earth and Planetary Sciences(all)

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1029/2022GL100739

Cite this

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title = "Inter-Model Differences in Future Summer Onset Over the Northern High Latitudes",

abstract = "Climate models consistently project a significant advance of summer onset over the Northern high latitude lands in the late 21st century. However, large inter-model differences exist, in particular, over Northwest Russia, Bering Sea region and Northeastern Canada. This study quantifies the influences of background global warming rate and regional snow-albedo feedback on the inter-model spreads in summer onset projections. Linear regression analysis reveals that models' transient climate response (TCR) values explain around 39%–50% of regional inter-model variances, indicating the dominant contribution of models' global warming rate. When removing TCR influences, the summer onset and snow cover exhibit significant inter-model correlations over Bering Sea region and Northeastern Canada, explaining 25%–30% of the inter-model variances. These results suggest that global climate sensitivity as well as regional snow-albedo feedback need to be considered for reliable projection of future summer season timing at regional scales.",

author = "Park, {Bo Joung} and Min, {Seung Ki} and Ryu, {Young Hee}",

note = "Funding Information: This study was supported by National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) grant funded by the Korean government (MSIT) (NRF2021R1A2C3007366) and the Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program under Grant KMI2021‐00912. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme, which, through its Working Group on Coupled Modeling, coordinated and promoted CMIP6. We thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making available their model output, the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) for archiving the data and providing access ( https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/projects/cmip6/ ), and the multiple funding agencies that support CMIP6 and ESGF. Funding Information: This study was supported by National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) grant funded by the Korean government (MSIT) (NRF2021R1A2C3007366) and the Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program under Grant KMI2021-00912. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme, which, through its Working Group on Coupled Modeling, coordinated and promoted CMIP6. We thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making available their model output, the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) for archiving the data and providing access (https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/projects/cmip6/), and the multiple funding agencies that support CMIP6 and ESGF. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2022 The Authors.",

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N2 - Climate models consistently project a significant advance of summer onset over the Northern high latitude lands in the late 21st century. However, large inter-model differences exist, in particular, over Northwest Russia, Bering Sea region and Northeastern Canada. This study quantifies the influences of background global warming rate and regional snow-albedo feedback on the inter-model spreads in summer onset projections. Linear regression analysis reveals that models' transient climate response (TCR) values explain around 39%–50% of regional inter-model variances, indicating the dominant contribution of models' global warming rate. When removing TCR influences, the summer onset and snow cover exhibit significant inter-model correlations over Bering Sea region and Northeastern Canada, explaining 25%–30% of the inter-model variances. These results suggest that global climate sensitivity as well as regional snow-albedo feedback need to be considered for reliable projection of future summer season timing at regional scales.

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Inter-Model Differences in Future Summer Onset Over the Northern High Latitudes

Abstract

Bibliographical note

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

UN SDGs

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