Model for assessing cardiovascular risk in a Korean population

Gyung Min Park, Seungbong Han, Seon Ha Kim, Min Woo Jo, Sung Ho Her, Jung Bok Lee, Moo Song Lee, HyeonChang Kim, Jung Min Ahn, Seung Whan Lee, Young Hak Kim, Beom Jun Kim, Jung Min Koh, Hong Kyu Kim, Jaewon Choe, Seong Wook Park, Seung Jung Park

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

12 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Background-A model for predicting cardiovascular disease in Asian populations is limited. Methods and Results-In total, 57 393 consecutive asymptomatic Korean individuals aged 30 to 80 years without a prior history of cardiovascular disease who underwent a general health examination were enrolled. Subjects were randomly classified into the train (n=45 914) and validation (n=11 479) cohorts. Thirty-one possible risk factors were assessed. The cardiovascular event was a composite of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, and stroke. In the train cohort, the C-index (95% confidence interval) and Akaike Information Criterion were used to develop the best-fitting prediction model. In the validation cohort, the predicted versus the observed cardiovascular event rates were compared by the C-index and Nam and D'Agostino χ2 statistics. During a median follow-up period of 3.1 (interquartile range, 1.9-4.3) years, 458 subjects had 474 cardiovascular events. In the train cohort, the best-fitting model consisted of age, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, current smoking, family history of coronary heart disease, white blood cell, creatinine, glycohemoglobin, atrial fibrillation, blood pressure, and cholesterol (C-index =0.757 [0.726-0.788] and Akaike Information Criterion =7207). When this model was tested in the validation cohort, it performed well in terms of discrimination and calibration abilities (C-index=0.760 [0.693-0.828] and Nam and D'Agostino χ2 statistic =0.001 for 3 years; C-index=0.782 [0.719-0.846] and Nam and D'Agostino χ2 statistic=1.037 for 5 years). Conclusions-A risk model based on traditional clinical and biomarkers has a feasible model performance in predicting cardiovascular events in an asymptomatic Korean population.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)944-951
Number of pages8
JournalCirculation: Cardiovascular Quality and Outcomes
Volume7
Issue number6
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2014 Nov 1

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Cardiovascular Models
Cardiovascular Diseases
Population
Aptitude
Atrial Fibrillation
Calibration
Coronary Disease
Creatinine
Diabetes Mellitus
Leukocytes
Biomarkers
Smoking
Stroke
Myocardial Infarction
Cholesterol
Confidence Intervals
Blood Pressure
Hypertension
Health

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine

Cite this

Park, G. M., Han, S., Kim, S. H., Jo, M. W., Her, S. H., Lee, J. B., ... Park, S. J. (2014). Model for assessing cardiovascular risk in a Korean population. Circulation: Cardiovascular Quality and Outcomes, 7(6), 944-951. https://doi.org/10.1161/CIRCOUTCOMES.114.001305
Park, Gyung Min ; Han, Seungbong ; Kim, Seon Ha ; Jo, Min Woo ; Her, Sung Ho ; Lee, Jung Bok ; Lee, Moo Song ; Kim, HyeonChang ; Ahn, Jung Min ; Lee, Seung Whan ; Kim, Young Hak ; Kim, Beom Jun ; Koh, Jung Min ; Kim, Hong Kyu ; Choe, Jaewon ; Park, Seong Wook ; Park, Seung Jung. / Model for assessing cardiovascular risk in a Korean population. In: Circulation: Cardiovascular Quality and Outcomes. 2014 ; Vol. 7, No. 6. pp. 944-951.
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abstract = "Background-A model for predicting cardiovascular disease in Asian populations is limited. Methods and Results-In total, 57 393 consecutive asymptomatic Korean individuals aged 30 to 80 years without a prior history of cardiovascular disease who underwent a general health examination were enrolled. Subjects were randomly classified into the train (n=45 914) and validation (n=11 479) cohorts. Thirty-one possible risk factors were assessed. The cardiovascular event was a composite of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, and stroke. In the train cohort, the C-index (95{\%} confidence interval) and Akaike Information Criterion were used to develop the best-fitting prediction model. In the validation cohort, the predicted versus the observed cardiovascular event rates were compared by the C-index and Nam and D'Agostino χ2 statistics. During a median follow-up period of 3.1 (interquartile range, 1.9-4.3) years, 458 subjects had 474 cardiovascular events. In the train cohort, the best-fitting model consisted of age, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, current smoking, family history of coronary heart disease, white blood cell, creatinine, glycohemoglobin, atrial fibrillation, blood pressure, and cholesterol (C-index =0.757 [0.726-0.788] and Akaike Information Criterion =7207). When this model was tested in the validation cohort, it performed well in terms of discrimination and calibration abilities (C-index=0.760 [0.693-0.828] and Nam and D'Agostino χ2 statistic =0.001 for 3 years; C-index=0.782 [0.719-0.846] and Nam and D'Agostino χ2 statistic=1.037 for 5 years). Conclusions-A risk model based on traditional clinical and biomarkers has a feasible model performance in predicting cardiovascular events in an asymptomatic Korean population.",
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Park, GM, Han, S, Kim, SH, Jo, MW, Her, SH, Lee, JB, Lee, MS, Kim, H, Ahn, JM, Lee, SW, Kim, YH, Kim, BJ, Koh, JM, Kim, HK, Choe, J, Park, SW & Park, SJ 2014, 'Model for assessing cardiovascular risk in a Korean population', Circulation: Cardiovascular Quality and Outcomes, vol. 7, no. 6, pp. 944-951. https://doi.org/10.1161/CIRCOUTCOMES.114.001305

Model for assessing cardiovascular risk in a Korean population. / Park, Gyung Min; Han, Seungbong; Kim, Seon Ha; Jo, Min Woo; Her, Sung Ho; Lee, Jung Bok; Lee, Moo Song; Kim, HyeonChang; Ahn, Jung Min; Lee, Seung Whan; Kim, Young Hak; Kim, Beom Jun; Koh, Jung Min; Kim, Hong Kyu; Choe, Jaewon; Park, Seong Wook; Park, Seung Jung.

In: Circulation: Cardiovascular Quality and Outcomes, Vol. 7, No. 6, 01.11.2014, p. 944-951.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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T1 - Model for assessing cardiovascular risk in a Korean population

AU - Park, Gyung Min

AU - Han, Seungbong

AU - Kim, Seon Ha

AU - Jo, Min Woo

AU - Her, Sung Ho

AU - Lee, Jung Bok

AU - Lee, Moo Song

AU - Kim, HyeonChang

AU - Ahn, Jung Min

AU - Lee, Seung Whan

AU - Kim, Young Hak

AU - Kim, Beom Jun

AU - Koh, Jung Min

AU - Kim, Hong Kyu

AU - Choe, Jaewon

AU - Park, Seong Wook

AU - Park, Seung Jung

PY - 2014/11/1

Y1 - 2014/11/1

N2 - Background-A model for predicting cardiovascular disease in Asian populations is limited. Methods and Results-In total, 57 393 consecutive asymptomatic Korean individuals aged 30 to 80 years without a prior history of cardiovascular disease who underwent a general health examination were enrolled. Subjects were randomly classified into the train (n=45 914) and validation (n=11 479) cohorts. Thirty-one possible risk factors were assessed. The cardiovascular event was a composite of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, and stroke. In the train cohort, the C-index (95% confidence interval) and Akaike Information Criterion were used to develop the best-fitting prediction model. In the validation cohort, the predicted versus the observed cardiovascular event rates were compared by the C-index and Nam and D'Agostino χ2 statistics. During a median follow-up period of 3.1 (interquartile range, 1.9-4.3) years, 458 subjects had 474 cardiovascular events. In the train cohort, the best-fitting model consisted of age, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, current smoking, family history of coronary heart disease, white blood cell, creatinine, glycohemoglobin, atrial fibrillation, blood pressure, and cholesterol (C-index =0.757 [0.726-0.788] and Akaike Information Criterion =7207). When this model was tested in the validation cohort, it performed well in terms of discrimination and calibration abilities (C-index=0.760 [0.693-0.828] and Nam and D'Agostino χ2 statistic =0.001 for 3 years; C-index=0.782 [0.719-0.846] and Nam and D'Agostino χ2 statistic=1.037 for 5 years). Conclusions-A risk model based on traditional clinical and biomarkers has a feasible model performance in predicting cardiovascular events in an asymptomatic Korean population.

AB - Background-A model for predicting cardiovascular disease in Asian populations is limited. Methods and Results-In total, 57 393 consecutive asymptomatic Korean individuals aged 30 to 80 years without a prior history of cardiovascular disease who underwent a general health examination were enrolled. Subjects were randomly classified into the train (n=45 914) and validation (n=11 479) cohorts. Thirty-one possible risk factors were assessed. The cardiovascular event was a composite of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, and stroke. In the train cohort, the C-index (95% confidence interval) and Akaike Information Criterion were used to develop the best-fitting prediction model. In the validation cohort, the predicted versus the observed cardiovascular event rates were compared by the C-index and Nam and D'Agostino χ2 statistics. During a median follow-up period of 3.1 (interquartile range, 1.9-4.3) years, 458 subjects had 474 cardiovascular events. In the train cohort, the best-fitting model consisted of age, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, current smoking, family history of coronary heart disease, white blood cell, creatinine, glycohemoglobin, atrial fibrillation, blood pressure, and cholesterol (C-index =0.757 [0.726-0.788] and Akaike Information Criterion =7207). When this model was tested in the validation cohort, it performed well in terms of discrimination and calibration abilities (C-index=0.760 [0.693-0.828] and Nam and D'Agostino χ2 statistic =0.001 for 3 years; C-index=0.782 [0.719-0.846] and Nam and D'Agostino χ2 statistic=1.037 for 5 years). Conclusions-A risk model based on traditional clinical and biomarkers has a feasible model performance in predicting cardiovascular events in an asymptomatic Korean population.

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