Model for assessing cardiovascular risk in a Korean population

Gyung Min Park, Seungbong Han, Seon Ha Kim, Min Woo Jo, Sung Ho Her, Jung Bok Lee, Moo Song Lee, Hyeon Chang Kim, Jung Min Ahn, Seung Whan Lee, Young Hak Kim, Beom Jun Kim, Jung Min Koh, Hong Kyu Kim, Jaewon Choe, Seong Wook Park, Seung Jung Park

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

35 Citations (Scopus)


Background-A model for predicting cardiovascular disease in Asian populations is limited. Methods and Results-In total, 57 393 consecutive asymptomatic Korean individuals aged 30 to 80 years without a prior history of cardiovascular disease who underwent a general health examination were enrolled. Subjects were randomly classified into the train (n=45 914) and validation (n=11 479) cohorts. Thirty-one possible risk factors were assessed. The cardiovascular event was a composite of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, and stroke. In the train cohort, the C-index (95% confidence interval) and Akaike Information Criterion were used to develop the best-fitting prediction model. In the validation cohort, the predicted versus the observed cardiovascular event rates were compared by the C-index and Nam and D'Agostino χ2 statistics. During a median follow-up period of 3.1 (interquartile range, 1.9-4.3) years, 458 subjects had 474 cardiovascular events. In the train cohort, the best-fitting model consisted of age, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, current smoking, family history of coronary heart disease, white blood cell, creatinine, glycohemoglobin, atrial fibrillation, blood pressure, and cholesterol (C-index =0.757 [0.726-0.788] and Akaike Information Criterion =7207). When this model was tested in the validation cohort, it performed well in terms of discrimination and calibration abilities (C-index=0.760 [0.693-0.828] and Nam and D'Agostino χ2 statistic =0.001 for 3 years; C-index=0.782 [0.719-0.846] and Nam and D'Agostino χ2 statistic=1.037 for 5 years). Conclusions-A risk model based on traditional clinical and biomarkers has a feasible model performance in predicting cardiovascular events in an asymptomatic Korean population.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)944-951
Number of pages8
JournalCirculation: Cardiovascular Quality and Outcomes
Issue number6
Publication statusPublished - 2014 Nov 1

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine


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