Non-parametric simulations-based conditional stochastic predictions of geologic heterogeneities and leakage potentials for hypothetical CO2 sequestration sites

Weon Shik Han, Kue Young Kim, Sungwook Choung, Jina Jeong, Na Hyun Jung, Eungyu Park

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

11 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The present study focuses on understanding the leakage potentials of the stored supercritical CO2 plume through caprocks generated in geostatistically created heterogeneous media. For this purpose, two hypothetical cases with different geostatistical features were developed, and two conditional geostatistical simulation models (i.e., sequential indicator simulation or SISIM and generalized coupled Markov chain or GCMC) were applied for the stochastic characterizations of the heterogeneities. Then, predictive CO2 plume migration simulations based on stochastic realizations were performed and summarized. In the geostatistical simulations, the results from the GCMC model showed better performance than those of the SISIM model for the strongly non-stationary case, while SISIM models showed reasonable performance for the weakly non-stationary case in terms of low-permeability lenses characterization. In the subsequent predictive simulations of CO2 plume migration, the observations in the geostatistical simulations were confirmed and the GCMC-based predictions showed underestimations in CO2 leakage in the stationary case, while the SISIM-based predictions showed considerable overestimations in the non-stationary case. The overall results suggest that: (1) proper characterization of low-permeability layering is significantly important in the prediction of CO2 plume behavior, especially for the leakage potential of CO2 and (2) appropriate geostatistical techniques must be selectively employed considering the degree of stationarity of the targeting fields to minimize the uncertainties in the predictions.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)2739-2752
Number of pages14
JournalEnvironmental Earth Sciences
Volume71
Issue number6
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2014 Jan 1

Fingerprint

carbon sequestration
leakage
prediction
plume
simulation
permeability
Lens
Markov processes
Lenses
simulation models
heterogeneous medium
uncertainty
Markov chain
targeting
methodology

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Global and Planetary Change
  • Environmental Chemistry
  • Water Science and Technology
  • Soil Science
  • Pollution
  • Geology
  • Earth-Surface Processes

Cite this

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abstract = "The present study focuses on understanding the leakage potentials of the stored supercritical CO2 plume through caprocks generated in geostatistically created heterogeneous media. For this purpose, two hypothetical cases with different geostatistical features were developed, and two conditional geostatistical simulation models (i.e., sequential indicator simulation or SISIM and generalized coupled Markov chain or GCMC) were applied for the stochastic characterizations of the heterogeneities. Then, predictive CO2 plume migration simulations based on stochastic realizations were performed and summarized. In the geostatistical simulations, the results from the GCMC model showed better performance than those of the SISIM model for the strongly non-stationary case, while SISIM models showed reasonable performance for the weakly non-stationary case in terms of low-permeability lenses characterization. In the subsequent predictive simulations of CO2 plume migration, the observations in the geostatistical simulations were confirmed and the GCMC-based predictions showed underestimations in CO2 leakage in the stationary case, while the SISIM-based predictions showed considerable overestimations in the non-stationary case. The overall results suggest that: (1) proper characterization of low-permeability layering is significantly important in the prediction of CO2 plume behavior, especially for the leakage potential of CO2 and (2) appropriate geostatistical techniques must be selectively employed considering the degree of stationarity of the targeting fields to minimize the uncertainties in the predictions.",
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Non-parametric simulations-based conditional stochastic predictions of geologic heterogeneities and leakage potentials for hypothetical CO2 sequestration sites. / Han, Weon Shik; Kim, Kue Young; Choung, Sungwook; Jeong, Jina; Jung, Na Hyun; Park, Eungyu.

In: Environmental Earth Sciences, Vol. 71, No. 6, 01.01.2014, p. 2739-2752.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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AU - Han, Weon Shik

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AU - Jung, Na Hyun

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