Operational forecasting inundation extents using REOF analysis (FIER) over lower Mekong and its potential economic impact on agriculture

Chi Hung Chang; Hyongki Lee; Son K. Do; Tien L.T. Du; Kel Markert; Faisal Hossain; Shahryar Khalique Ahmad; Thanapon Piman; Chinaporn Meechaiya; Duong D. Bui; John D. Bolten; Euiho Hwang; Hahn Chul Jung

doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2023.105643

Operational forecasting inundation extents using REOF analysis (FIER) over lower Mekong and its potential economic impact on agriculture

Chi Hung Chang, Hyongki Lee, Son K. Do, Tien L.T. Du, Kel Markert, Faisal Hossain, Shahryar Khalique Ahmad, Thanapon Piman, Chinaporn Meechaiya, Duong D. Bui, John D. Bolten, Euiho Hwang, Hahn Chul Jung

Department of Earth System Sciences

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

In the Lower Mekong River Basin floodplains, rice cultivation is highly crucial for regional and global food security. However, prolonged flooding can pose damage to rice cultivation and other socio-economic aspects. Yet, there is no rapid operational inundation forecasting system that can help decision-makers proactively mitigate flood damages. Here, we integrated the so-called Forecasting Inundation Extents using Rotated empirical orthogonal function analysis (FIER) framework with an altimetry-based operational Mekong River level forecasting system and built an operational web application, FIER-Mekong, (https://fier-mekong.streamlit.app/) that generates daily skillful forecasted inundation extents (>70% of critical success index) and depths in about 3 and 30 s, respectively, with up to 18-day lead times. One of its applications, predicting flood-induced rice economic losses, is also presented. Had FIER-Mekong being adopted, we estimated that the rice damages, up to 87 and 53 million US dollars during the 2020 and 2021 harvest time, respectively, could have been avoided.

Original language	English
Article number	105643
Journal	Environmental Modelling and Software
Volume	162
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2023.105643
Publication status	Published - 2023 Apr

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
This study was supported by NASA's Applied Sciences Program for SERVIR ( 80NSSC20K0152 , 80NSSC23K0184 ), University of Houston's GEAR Program, and Vietnam National Foundation for Science and Technology Development ( NE/S002847/1 ). This study was also partially supported by the Korea Ministry of Environment under the Demand Responsive Water Supply Service Program ( 2019002650004 ) and the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) grant funded by the Korean government (MSIT) (No. 2021R1A2C100578011 ). We also acknowledge the publicly available FwDET-GEE tool developed by Peter et al. (2020) .

Publisher Copyright:
© 2023 Elsevier Ltd

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

Software
Environmental Engineering
Ecological Modelling

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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Cite this

Chang, C. H., Lee, H., Do, S. K., Du, T. L. T., Markert, K., Hossain, F., Ahmad, S. K., Piman, T., Meechaiya, C., Bui, D. D., Bolten, J. D., Hwang, E., & Jung, H. C. (2023). Operational forecasting inundation extents using REOF analysis (FIER) over lower Mekong and its potential economic impact on agriculture. Environmental Modelling and Software, 162, [105643]. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2023.105643

@article{172ed6ad4d634db89a9bc00a658f19e1,

title = "Operational forecasting inundation extents using REOF analysis (FIER) over lower Mekong and its potential economic impact on agriculture",

abstract = "In the Lower Mekong River Basin floodplains, rice cultivation is highly crucial for regional and global food security. However, prolonged flooding can pose damage to rice cultivation and other socio-economic aspects. Yet, there is no rapid operational inundation forecasting system that can help decision-makers proactively mitigate flood damages. Here, we integrated the so-called Forecasting Inundation Extents using Rotated empirical orthogonal function analysis (FIER) framework with an altimetry-based operational Mekong River level forecasting system and built an operational web application, FIER-Mekong, (https://fier-mekong.streamlit.app/) that generates daily skillful forecasted inundation extents (>70% of critical success index) and depths in about 3 and 30 s, respectively, with up to 18-day lead times. One of its applications, predicting flood-induced rice economic losses, is also presented. Had FIER-Mekong being adopted, we estimated that the rice damages, up to 87 and 53 million US dollars during the 2020 and 2021 harvest time, respectively, could have been avoided.",

author = "Chang, {Chi Hung} and Hyongki Lee and Do, {Son K.} and Du, {Tien L.T.} and Kel Markert and Faisal Hossain and Ahmad, {Shahryar Khalique} and Thanapon Piman and Chinaporn Meechaiya and Bui, {Duong D.} and Bolten, {John D.} and Euiho Hwang and Jung, {Hahn Chul}",

note = "Funding Information: This study was supported by NASA's Applied Sciences Program for SERVIR ( 80NSSC20K0152 , 80NSSC23K0184 ), University of Houston's GEAR Program, and Vietnam National Foundation for Science and Technology Development ( NE/S002847/1 ). This study was also partially supported by the Korea Ministry of Environment under the Demand Responsive Water Supply Service Program ( 2019002650004 ) and the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) grant funded by the Korean government (MSIT) (No. 2021R1A2C100578011 ). We also acknowledge the publicly available FwDET-GEE tool developed by Peter et al. (2020) . Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2023 Elsevier Ltd",

year = "2023",

month = apr,

doi = "10.1016/j.envsoft.2023.105643",

language = "English",

volume = "162",

journal = "Environmental Modelling and Software",

issn = "1364-8152",

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Chang, CH, Lee, H, Do, SK, Du, TLT, Markert, K, Hossain, F, Ahmad, SK, Piman, T, Meechaiya, C, Bui, DD, Bolten, JD, Hwang, E & Jung, HC 2023, 'Operational forecasting inundation extents using REOF analysis (FIER) over lower Mekong and its potential economic impact on agriculture', Environmental Modelling and Software, vol. 162, 105643. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2023.105643

TY - JOUR

T1 - Operational forecasting inundation extents using REOF analysis (FIER) over lower Mekong and its potential economic impact on agriculture

AU - Chang, Chi Hung

AU - Lee, Hyongki

AU - Do, Son K.

AU - Du, Tien L.T.

AU - Markert, Kel

AU - Hossain, Faisal

AU - Ahmad, Shahryar Khalique

AU - Piman, Thanapon

AU - Meechaiya, Chinaporn

AU - Bui, Duong D.

AU - Bolten, John D.

AU - Hwang, Euiho

AU - Jung, Hahn Chul

N1 - Funding Information: This study was supported by NASA's Applied Sciences Program for SERVIR ( 80NSSC20K0152 , 80NSSC23K0184 ), University of Houston's GEAR Program, and Vietnam National Foundation for Science and Technology Development ( NE/S002847/1 ). This study was also partially supported by the Korea Ministry of Environment under the Demand Responsive Water Supply Service Program ( 2019002650004 ) and the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) grant funded by the Korean government (MSIT) (No. 2021R1A2C100578011 ). We also acknowledge the publicly available FwDET-GEE tool developed by Peter et al. (2020) . Publisher Copyright: © 2023 Elsevier Ltd

PY - 2023/4

Y1 - 2023/4

N2 - In the Lower Mekong River Basin floodplains, rice cultivation is highly crucial for regional and global food security. However, prolonged flooding can pose damage to rice cultivation and other socio-economic aspects. Yet, there is no rapid operational inundation forecasting system that can help decision-makers proactively mitigate flood damages. Here, we integrated the so-called Forecasting Inundation Extents using Rotated empirical orthogonal function analysis (FIER) framework with an altimetry-based operational Mekong River level forecasting system and built an operational web application, FIER-Mekong, (https://fier-mekong.streamlit.app/) that generates daily skillful forecasted inundation extents (>70% of critical success index) and depths in about 3 and 30 s, respectively, with up to 18-day lead times. One of its applications, predicting flood-induced rice economic losses, is also presented. Had FIER-Mekong being adopted, we estimated that the rice damages, up to 87 and 53 million US dollars during the 2020 and 2021 harvest time, respectively, could have been avoided.

AB - In the Lower Mekong River Basin floodplains, rice cultivation is highly crucial for regional and global food security. However, prolonged flooding can pose damage to rice cultivation and other socio-economic aspects. Yet, there is no rapid operational inundation forecasting system that can help decision-makers proactively mitigate flood damages. Here, we integrated the so-called Forecasting Inundation Extents using Rotated empirical orthogonal function analysis (FIER) framework with an altimetry-based operational Mekong River level forecasting system and built an operational web application, FIER-Mekong, (https://fier-mekong.streamlit.app/) that generates daily skillful forecasted inundation extents (>70% of critical success index) and depths in about 3 and 30 s, respectively, with up to 18-day lead times. One of its applications, predicting flood-induced rice economic losses, is also presented. Had FIER-Mekong being adopted, we estimated that the rice damages, up to 87 and 53 million US dollars during the 2020 and 2021 harvest time, respectively, could have been avoided.

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JO - Environmental Modelling and Software

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ER -

Operational forecasting inundation extents using REOF analysis (FIER) over lower Mekong and its potential economic impact on agriculture

Abstract

Bibliographical note

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

UN SDGs

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