Operational forecasting inundation extents using REOF analysis (FIER) over lower Mekong and its potential economic impact on agriculture

Chi Hung Chang, Hyongki Lee, Son K. Do, Tien L.T. Du, Kel Markert, Faisal Hossain, Shahryar Khalique Ahmad, Thanapon Piman, Chinaporn Meechaiya, Duong D. Bui, John D. Bolten, Euiho Hwang, Hahn Chul Jung

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


In the Lower Mekong River Basin floodplains, rice cultivation is highly crucial for regional and global food security. However, prolonged flooding can pose damage to rice cultivation and other socio-economic aspects. Yet, there is no rapid operational inundation forecasting system that can help decision-makers proactively mitigate flood damages. Here, we integrated the so-called Forecasting Inundation Extents using Rotated empirical orthogonal function analysis (FIER) framework with an altimetry-based operational Mekong River level forecasting system and built an operational web application, FIER-Mekong, (https://fier-mekong.streamlit.app/) that generates daily skillful forecasted inundation extents (>70% of critical success index) and depths in about 3 and 30 s, respectively, with up to 18-day lead times. One of its applications, predicting flood-induced rice economic losses, is also presented. Had FIER-Mekong being adopted, we estimated that the rice damages, up to 87 and 53 million US dollars during the 2020 and 2021 harvest time, respectively, could have been avoided.

Original languageEnglish
Article number105643
JournalEnvironmental Modelling and Software
Publication statusPublished - 2023 Apr

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
This study was supported by NASA's Applied Sciences Program for SERVIR ( 80NSSC20K0152 , 80NSSC23K0184 ), University of Houston's GEAR Program, and Vietnam National Foundation for Science and Technology Development ( NE/S002847/1 ). This study was also partially supported by the Korea Ministry of Environment under the Demand Responsive Water Supply Service Program ( 2019002650004 ) and the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) grant funded by the Korean government (MSIT) (No. 2021R1A2C100578011 ). We also acknowledge the publicly available FwDET-GEE tool developed by Peter et al. (2020) .

Publisher Copyright:
© 2023 Elsevier Ltd

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Software
  • Environmental Engineering
  • Ecological Modelling


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