Optimization of Petrochemical Process Planning using Naphtha Price Forecasting and Process Modeling

Hweeung Kwon, Byeonggil Lyu, Kyungjae Tak, Jinsuk Lee, Il Moon

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter

4 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

A naphtha price forecasting model based on the time series method is developed to predict the monthly variation of naphtha price using statistics. We used the model to forecast future naphtha prices by looking at historical time series data from January 2008 to September 2011. After forecasting, we perform the normalization of the observed period and implement a simulation using the price forecasting model. In order to check the accuracy of the model, the predicted naphtha price variations are compared with the actual naphtha variation. If the predicted variation of the normalized naphtha price has the same trend as the actual naphtha variation, our prediction value is called "T." Otherwise, the predicted value is called "F." The accuracy of the predicted value is relatively higher than the price forecasting for other products such as crude oil. As a result, our model is useful to industry decision-makers for forecasting the price of naphtha.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationComputer Aided Chemical Engineering
PublisherElsevier B.V.
Pages2039-2044
Number of pages6
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2015

Publication series

NameComputer Aided Chemical Engineering
Volume37
ISSN (Print)1570-7946

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
This work was supported by the Ministry of Education (MOE) of Korea by its BK21 P rogram.

Funding Information:
This research was respectfully supported by Engineering Development Research Center (EDRC) funded by the Ministry of Trade, Industry & Energy (MOTIE).

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Chemical Engineering(all)
  • Computer Science Applications

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