Osteoporosis risk prediction for bone mineral density assessment of postmenopausal women using machine learning

Tae Keun Yoo, Sung Kean Kim, Deok Won Kim, Joon Yul Choi, Wan Hyung Lee, Ein Oh, Eun Cheol Park

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

25 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Purpose: A number of clinical decision tools for osteoporosis risk assessment have been developed to select postmenopausal women for the measurement of bone mineral density. We developed and validated machine learning models with the aim of more accurately identifying the risk of osteoporosis in postmenopausal women compared to the ability of conventional clinical decision tools. Materials and Methods: We collected medical records from Korean postmenopausal women based on the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys. The training data set was used to construct models based on popular machine learning algorithms such as support vector machines (SVM), random forests, artificial neural networks (ANN), and logistic regression (LR) based on simple surveys. The machine learning models were compared to four conventional clinical decision tools: osteoporosis self-assessment tool (OST), osteoporosis risk assessment instrument (ORAI), simple calculated osteoporosis risk estimation (SCORE), and osteoporosis index of risk (OSIRIS). Results: SVM had significantly better area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic than ANN, LR, OST, ORAI, SCORE, and OSIRIS for the training set. SVM predicted osteoporosis risk with an AUC of 0.827, accuracy of 76.7%, sensitivity of 77.8%, and specificity of 76.0% at total hip, femoral neck, or lumbar spine for the testing set. The significant factors selected by SVM were age, height, weight, body mass index, duration of menopause, duration of breast feeding, estrogen therapy, hyperlipidemia, hypertension, osteoarthritis, and diabetes mellitus. Conclusion: Considering various predictors associated with low bone density, the machine learning methods may be effective tools for identifying postmenopausal women at high risk for osteoporosis.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1321-1330
Number of pages10
JournalYonsei medical journal
Volume54
Issue number6
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2013

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Medicine(all)

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