Power parity, alliance, dissatisfaction, and wars in East Asia, 1860-1993

Original power transition theory is extended by relaxing the restrictive assumption of the method of augmenting national power. The occurrence of war in East Asia from 1860 to 1993 is examined to see if the revised power transition argument holds for the conflicts in East Asia. Results show that conflicts in East Asia occur under the same general conditions that lead to war in the international system and that war is most likely when the dissatisfied challenger approximates the dominant power. The evidence also suggests that the role of alliances is crucial for mitigating or militating the risk of war, contrary to the standard power transition formulation. Because alliances play a central role in the risk of wars, the dangers of such a conflict in East Asia (or elsewhere) can be managed through skillful strategies of alignment and de-alignment.