Preconditions for El Niño and La Niña onsets and their relation to the Indian Ocean

Jong Seong Kug, Soon Il An, Fei Fei Jin, In Sik Kang

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

48 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

El Niño/La Niña onset is a challenging problem of ENSO prediction. In this study, we introduce two precursors of El Niño and La Niña onsets. One is the equatorial heat content, and the other is the Western Pacific (WP) wind. When the two precursors are considered together, both the El Niño and La Niño onsets can be highly predictable. In particular, the persistence of the WP wind is more important for the onset than sporadic wind events. The persistent WP westerly (easterly) wind tends to be concurrent with the Indian Ocean SST cooling (warming). The Indian Ocean SST anomaly is partly correlated to an ENSO event during the previous winter. We demonstrate that an asymmetric relation between the Indian Ocean SST and ENSO can result in asymmetric progress of onset in the opposite ENSO phases.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1-5
Number of pages5
JournalGeophysical Research Letters
Volume32
Issue number5
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2005 Mar 16

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Indian Ocean
El Nino-Southern Oscillation
sea surface temperature
westerly
winter
persistence
warming
enthalpy
anomalies
cooling
anomaly
heating
prediction
predictions

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Geophysics
  • Earth and Planetary Sciences(all)

Cite this

Kug, Jong Seong ; An, Soon Il ; Jin, Fei Fei ; Kang, In Sik. / Preconditions for El Niño and La Niña onsets and their relation to the Indian Ocean. In: Geophysical Research Letters. 2005 ; Vol. 32, No. 5. pp. 1-5.
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Preconditions for El Niño and La Niña onsets and their relation to the Indian Ocean. / Kug, Jong Seong; An, Soon Il; Jin, Fei Fei; Kang, In Sik.

In: Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 32, No. 5, 16.03.2005, p. 1-5.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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AB - El Niño/La Niña onset is a challenging problem of ENSO prediction. In this study, we introduce two precursors of El Niño and La Niña onsets. One is the equatorial heat content, and the other is the Western Pacific (WP) wind. When the two precursors are considered together, both the El Niño and La Niño onsets can be highly predictable. In particular, the persistence of the WP wind is more important for the onset than sporadic wind events. The persistent WP westerly (easterly) wind tends to be concurrent with the Indian Ocean SST cooling (warming). The Indian Ocean SST anomaly is partly correlated to an ENSO event during the previous winter. We demonstrate that an asymmetric relation between the Indian Ocean SST and ENSO can result in asymmetric progress of onset in the opposite ENSO phases.

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