Prediction of esophageal variceal bleeding in b-viral liver cirrhosis using the p2/ms noninvasive index based on complete blood counts

Beom Kyung Kim, Sang Hoon Ahn, Kwang Hyub Han, Jun Yong Park, Min Seok Han, Jung Hyun Jo, Ja Kyung Kim, Kwan Sik Lee, Chae Yoon Chon, Do Young Kim

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Abstract

Background/Aim: Periodic endoscopy for esophageal varices (EVs) and prophylactic treatment of high-risk EVs, i.e. medium/large EVs, small EVs with the red-color sign or decompensation, are recommended in cirrhotic patients. We assessed the cumulative risks for future EV bleeding using the following simple P2/MS index: (platelet count)2/[monocyte fraction (%) × segmented neutrophil fraction (%)]. Methods: We enrolled 475 consecutive B-viral cirrhosis patients for 4 years, none of whom experienced EV bleeding. All underwent laboratory work-ups, endoscopy and ultrasonography. Those with EV bleeding took a nonselective β-blocker as prophylaxis. The major endpoint was the first occurrence of EV bleeding, analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression methods. Results: Among patients with EV bleeding (n = 131), 25 experienced their first EV bleeding during follow-up. To differentiate the risk for EV bleeding, we divided them into two subgroups according to their P2/MS value (subgroup 1: P2/MS ≥9 and subgroup 2: P2/MS <9). The risk was significantly higher in subgroup 2 (p = 0.029). From multivariate analysis, a lower P2/MS (p = 0.040) remained a significant predictor for EV bleeding along with large varix size (p = 0.015), red-color sign (p = 0.041) and Child-Pugh classification B/C (p = 0.001). In subgroup 1, the risk for EV bleeding was similar to that of patients with low-risk EVs (p = 0.164). Conclusions: The P2/MS is a reliable predictor for the risk of EV bleeding among patients with EV bleeding. According to risk stratification, different prophylactic treatments should be considered for the subgroup with a P2/MS <9.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)264-272
Number of pages9
JournalDigestion
Volume86
Issue number3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2012 Oct 1

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All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Gastroenterology

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