Predictors of mortality in cirrhotic patients undergoing extrahepatic surgery: Comparison of Child-Turcotte-Pugh and model for end-stage liver disease-based indices

Background: Underlying liver cirrhosis is associated with high morbidity and mortality after surgery. Previous studies have reported conflicting results about the value of Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scores as predictors of post-operative mortality. This study was designed to compare the capacities of CTP, MELD and MELD-based indices in predicting mortality for patients with liver cirrhosis who underwent elective extrahepatic surgery. Methods: The medical records of 79 patients with liver cirrhosis who underwent elective extrahepatic surgery under general anaesthesia from December 2000 to December 2009 were reviewed retrospectively. Results: The median follow-up period was 21 months, and the mortality rate was 24.1% (n = 19). Among the 19 mortalities, nine (11.4%) occurred while the patient was hospitalized after surgery. Intraoperative transfusion amount (≥700mL; odds ratio 6.294, P = 0.004) and the integrated MELD score (≥34; odds ratio 6.654, P = 0.007) were significantly correlated with post-operative mortality. CTP score (hazard ratio 1.575, P = 0.012) was significantly correlated with overall mortality. Conclusions: Integrated MELD may be a more accurate predictor of operative mortality in cirrhotic patients undergoing extrahepatic surgery than CTP and other MELD-Na based indices. However, overall mortality may be reflected more accurately by CTP score. Further large-scale study will be needed to validate this result.