We developed a nomogram to predict the probability of extracapsular extension (ECE) in localized prostate cancer and to determine when the neurovascular bundle (NVB) may be spared. Total 1,471 Korean men who underwent radical prostatectomy for prostate cancer between 1995 and 2008 were included. We drew nonrandom samples of 1,031 for nomogram development, leaving 440 samples for nomogram validation. With multivariate logistic regression analyses, we made a nomogram to predicts the ECE probability at radical prostatectomy. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses were also performed to assess the predictive value of each variable alone and in combination. The internal validation was performed from 200 bootstrap re-samples and the external validation was also performed from the another cohort. Overall, 314 patients (30.5%) had ECE. Age, Prostate specific antigen (PSA), biopsy Gleason score, positive core ratio, and maximum percentage of biopsy tumor were independent predictors of the presence of ECE (all P values <0.05). The nomogram predicted ECE with good discrimination (an area under the ROC curve of 0.777). Our nomogram allows for the preoperative identification of patients with an ECE and may prove useful in selecting patients to receive nerve sparing radical prostatectomy.
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