Abstract
Purpose Metastatic biliary tract cancer (mBTC) has a dismal prognosis. In this study, an independent dataset of patients with mBTC was used to implement and validate a routine clinico-laboratory parameter-based scoring model for risk group identification. Materials and Methods From September 2006 to February 2015, 482 patients with mBTC were assigned randomly (ratio, 7:3) into investigational (n=340) and validation datasets (n=142). The continuous variables were dichotomized using a normal range or the best cutoff values determined using the Contal and O'Quigley statistical methods. Following a Cox's proportional hazard model, the scoring model was derived by summing the rounded chi-square scores for the factors identified by multivariate analysis. Results The performance status (Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group 3-4), hypoalbuminemia ( < 3.4 mg/dL), carcinoembryonic antigen (≥ 9 ng/mL), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (≥ 3.0), and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (≥ 120 U/mL) were identified as independent prognosticators (Harrell's C index, 0.682; integrated area under the curve, 0.653). Survival was clearly correlated with the risk groups (low, intermediate, and high, 14.0, 7.3, and 2.3 months, respectively; p < 0.001). The prognosis was also discriminative in the validation data set (median survival, 16.7, 7.5, and 1.9 months, respectively; p < 0.001). Chemotherapy did not offer any survival benefits for high-risk patients. Conclusion These proposed prognostic criteria for mBTC can facilitate accurate patient risk stratification and treatment-related decision-making.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 1127-1139 |
| Number of pages | 13 |
| Journal | Cancer Research and Treatment |
| Volume | 49 |
| Issue number | 4 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 2017 Jan 1 |
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All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes
- Oncology
- Cancer Research
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Prognostic factors and scoring model for survival in Metastatic biliary tract cancer. / Park, Hyung Soon; Park, Ji Soo; Chun, You Jin; Roh, Yun Ho; Moon, Jieun; Chon, Hong Jae; Choi, Hye Jin; Park, Joon Seong; Lee, DongKi; Lee, Se Joon; Yoon, Dong Sup; Jeung, Hei Cheul.
In: Cancer Research and Treatment, Vol. 49, No. 4, 01.01.2017, p. 1127-1139.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
TY - JOUR
T1 - Prognostic factors and scoring model for survival in Metastatic biliary tract cancer
AU - Park, Hyung Soon
AU - Park, Ji Soo
AU - Chun, You Jin
AU - Roh, Yun Ho
AU - Moon, Jieun
AU - Chon, Hong Jae
AU - Choi, Hye Jin
AU - Park, Joon Seong
AU - Lee, DongKi
AU - Lee, Se Joon
AU - Yoon, Dong Sup
AU - Jeung, Hei Cheul
PY - 2017/1/1
Y1 - 2017/1/1
N2 - Purpose Metastatic biliary tract cancer (mBTC) has a dismal prognosis. In this study, an independent dataset of patients with mBTC was used to implement and validate a routine clinico-laboratory parameter-based scoring model for risk group identification. Materials and Methods From September 2006 to February 2015, 482 patients with mBTC were assigned randomly (ratio, 7:3) into investigational (n=340) and validation datasets (n=142). The continuous variables were dichotomized using a normal range or the best cutoff values determined using the Contal and O'Quigley statistical methods. Following a Cox's proportional hazard model, the scoring model was derived by summing the rounded chi-square scores for the factors identified by multivariate analysis. Results The performance status (Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group 3-4), hypoalbuminemia ( < 3.4 mg/dL), carcinoembryonic antigen (≥ 9 ng/mL), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (≥ 3.0), and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (≥ 120 U/mL) were identified as independent prognosticators (Harrell's C index, 0.682; integrated area under the curve, 0.653). Survival was clearly correlated with the risk groups (low, intermediate, and high, 14.0, 7.3, and 2.3 months, respectively; p < 0.001). The prognosis was also discriminative in the validation data set (median survival, 16.7, 7.5, and 1.9 months, respectively; p < 0.001). Chemotherapy did not offer any survival benefits for high-risk patients. Conclusion These proposed prognostic criteria for mBTC can facilitate accurate patient risk stratification and treatment-related decision-making.
AB - Purpose Metastatic biliary tract cancer (mBTC) has a dismal prognosis. In this study, an independent dataset of patients with mBTC was used to implement and validate a routine clinico-laboratory parameter-based scoring model for risk group identification. Materials and Methods From September 2006 to February 2015, 482 patients with mBTC were assigned randomly (ratio, 7:3) into investigational (n=340) and validation datasets (n=142). The continuous variables were dichotomized using a normal range or the best cutoff values determined using the Contal and O'Quigley statistical methods. Following a Cox's proportional hazard model, the scoring model was derived by summing the rounded chi-square scores for the factors identified by multivariate analysis. Results The performance status (Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group 3-4), hypoalbuminemia ( < 3.4 mg/dL), carcinoembryonic antigen (≥ 9 ng/mL), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (≥ 3.0), and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (≥ 120 U/mL) were identified as independent prognosticators (Harrell's C index, 0.682; integrated area under the curve, 0.653). Survival was clearly correlated with the risk groups (low, intermediate, and high, 14.0, 7.3, and 2.3 months, respectively; p < 0.001). The prognosis was also discriminative in the validation data set (median survival, 16.7, 7.5, and 1.9 months, respectively; p < 0.001). Chemotherapy did not offer any survival benefits for high-risk patients. Conclusion These proposed prognostic criteria for mBTC can facilitate accurate patient risk stratification and treatment-related decision-making.
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UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85029496098&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.4143/crt.2016.538
DO - 10.4143/crt.2016.538
M3 - Article
C2 - 28161931
AN - SCOPUS:85029496098
VL - 49
SP - 1127
EP - 1139
JO - Cancer Research and Treatment
JF - Cancer Research and Treatment
SN - 1598-2998
IS - 4
ER -