Prognostic factors and scoring model for survival in Metastatic biliary tract cancer

Hyung Soon Park, Ji Soo Park, You Jin Chun, Yun Ho Roh, Jieun Moon, Hong Jae Chon, Hye Jin Choi, Joon Seong Park, DongKi Lee, Se Joon Lee, Dong Sup Yoon, Hei Cheul Jeung

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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Abstract

Purpose Metastatic biliary tract cancer (mBTC) has a dismal prognosis. In this study, an independent dataset of patients with mBTC was used to implement and validate a routine clinico-laboratory parameter-based scoring model for risk group identification. Materials and Methods From September 2006 to February 2015, 482 patients with mBTC were assigned randomly (ratio, 7:3) into investigational (n=340) and validation datasets (n=142). The continuous variables were dichotomized using a normal range or the best cutoff values determined using the Contal and O'Quigley statistical methods. Following a Cox's proportional hazard model, the scoring model was derived by summing the rounded chi-square scores for the factors identified by multivariate analysis. Results The performance status (Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group 3-4), hypoalbuminemia ( < 3.4 mg/dL), carcinoembryonic antigen (≥ 9 ng/mL), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (≥ 3.0), and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (≥ 120 U/mL) were identified as independent prognosticators (Harrell's C index, 0.682; integrated area under the curve, 0.653). Survival was clearly correlated with the risk groups (low, intermediate, and high, 14.0, 7.3, and 2.3 months, respectively; p < 0.001). The prognosis was also discriminative in the validation data set (median survival, 16.7, 7.5, and 1.9 months, respectively; p < 0.001). Chemotherapy did not offer any survival benefits for high-risk patients. Conclusion These proposed prognostic criteria for mBTC can facilitate accurate patient risk stratification and treatment-related decision-making.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1127-1139
Number of pages13
JournalCancer Research and Treatment
Volume49
Issue number4
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2017 Jan 1

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Biliary Tract Neoplasms
Survival
Hypoalbuminemia
Social Identification
Carcinoembryonic Antigen
Proportional Hazards Models
Area Under Curve
Decision Making
Reference Values
Neutrophils
Multivariate Analysis
Carbohydrates
Lymphocytes
Antigens
Drug Therapy
Datasets

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Oncology
  • Cancer Research

Cite this

Park, H. S., Park, J. S., Chun, Y. J., Roh, Y. H., Moon, J., Chon, H. J., ... Jeung, H. C. (2017). Prognostic factors and scoring model for survival in Metastatic biliary tract cancer. Cancer Research and Treatment, 49(4), 1127-1139. https://doi.org/10.4143/crt.2016.538
Park, Hyung Soon ; Park, Ji Soo ; Chun, You Jin ; Roh, Yun Ho ; Moon, Jieun ; Chon, Hong Jae ; Choi, Hye Jin ; Park, Joon Seong ; Lee, DongKi ; Lee, Se Joon ; Yoon, Dong Sup ; Jeung, Hei Cheul. / Prognostic factors and scoring model for survival in Metastatic biliary tract cancer. In: Cancer Research and Treatment. 2017 ; Vol. 49, No. 4. pp. 1127-1139.
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title = "Prognostic factors and scoring model for survival in Metastatic biliary tract cancer",
abstract = "Purpose Metastatic biliary tract cancer (mBTC) has a dismal prognosis. In this study, an independent dataset of patients with mBTC was used to implement and validate a routine clinico-laboratory parameter-based scoring model for risk group identification. Materials and Methods From September 2006 to February 2015, 482 patients with mBTC were assigned randomly (ratio, 7:3) into investigational (n=340) and validation datasets (n=142). The continuous variables were dichotomized using a normal range or the best cutoff values determined using the Contal and O'Quigley statistical methods. Following a Cox's proportional hazard model, the scoring model was derived by summing the rounded chi-square scores for the factors identified by multivariate analysis. Results The performance status (Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group 3-4), hypoalbuminemia ( < 3.4 mg/dL), carcinoembryonic antigen (≥ 9 ng/mL), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (≥ 3.0), and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (≥ 120 U/mL) were identified as independent prognosticators (Harrell's C index, 0.682; integrated area under the curve, 0.653). Survival was clearly correlated with the risk groups (low, intermediate, and high, 14.0, 7.3, and 2.3 months, respectively; p < 0.001). The prognosis was also discriminative in the validation data set (median survival, 16.7, 7.5, and 1.9 months, respectively; p < 0.001). Chemotherapy did not offer any survival benefits for high-risk patients. Conclusion These proposed prognostic criteria for mBTC can facilitate accurate patient risk stratification and treatment-related decision-making.",
author = "Park, {Hyung Soon} and Park, {Ji Soo} and Chun, {You Jin} and Roh, {Yun Ho} and Jieun Moon and Chon, {Hong Jae} and Choi, {Hye Jin} and Park, {Joon Seong} and DongKi Lee and Lee, {Se Joon} and Yoon, {Dong Sup} and Jeung, {Hei Cheul}",
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Park, HS, Park, JS, Chun, YJ, Roh, YH, Moon, J, Chon, HJ, Choi, HJ, Park, JS, Lee, D, Lee, SJ, Yoon, DS & Jeung, HC 2017, 'Prognostic factors and scoring model for survival in Metastatic biliary tract cancer', Cancer Research and Treatment, vol. 49, no. 4, pp. 1127-1139. https://doi.org/10.4143/crt.2016.538

Prognostic factors and scoring model for survival in Metastatic biliary tract cancer. / Park, Hyung Soon; Park, Ji Soo; Chun, You Jin; Roh, Yun Ho; Moon, Jieun; Chon, Hong Jae; Choi, Hye Jin; Park, Joon Seong; Lee, DongKi; Lee, Se Joon; Yoon, Dong Sup; Jeung, Hei Cheul.

In: Cancer Research and Treatment, Vol. 49, No. 4, 01.01.2017, p. 1127-1139.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - Prognostic factors and scoring model for survival in Metastatic biliary tract cancer

AU - Park, Hyung Soon

AU - Park, Ji Soo

AU - Chun, You Jin

AU - Roh, Yun Ho

AU - Moon, Jieun

AU - Chon, Hong Jae

AU - Choi, Hye Jin

AU - Park, Joon Seong

AU - Lee, DongKi

AU - Lee, Se Joon

AU - Yoon, Dong Sup

AU - Jeung, Hei Cheul

PY - 2017/1/1

Y1 - 2017/1/1

N2 - Purpose Metastatic biliary tract cancer (mBTC) has a dismal prognosis. In this study, an independent dataset of patients with mBTC was used to implement and validate a routine clinico-laboratory parameter-based scoring model for risk group identification. Materials and Methods From September 2006 to February 2015, 482 patients with mBTC were assigned randomly (ratio, 7:3) into investigational (n=340) and validation datasets (n=142). The continuous variables were dichotomized using a normal range or the best cutoff values determined using the Contal and O'Quigley statistical methods. Following a Cox's proportional hazard model, the scoring model was derived by summing the rounded chi-square scores for the factors identified by multivariate analysis. Results The performance status (Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group 3-4), hypoalbuminemia ( < 3.4 mg/dL), carcinoembryonic antigen (≥ 9 ng/mL), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (≥ 3.0), and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (≥ 120 U/mL) were identified as independent prognosticators (Harrell's C index, 0.682; integrated area under the curve, 0.653). Survival was clearly correlated with the risk groups (low, intermediate, and high, 14.0, 7.3, and 2.3 months, respectively; p < 0.001). The prognosis was also discriminative in the validation data set (median survival, 16.7, 7.5, and 1.9 months, respectively; p < 0.001). Chemotherapy did not offer any survival benefits for high-risk patients. Conclusion These proposed prognostic criteria for mBTC can facilitate accurate patient risk stratification and treatment-related decision-making.

AB - Purpose Metastatic biliary tract cancer (mBTC) has a dismal prognosis. In this study, an independent dataset of patients with mBTC was used to implement and validate a routine clinico-laboratory parameter-based scoring model for risk group identification. Materials and Methods From September 2006 to February 2015, 482 patients with mBTC were assigned randomly (ratio, 7:3) into investigational (n=340) and validation datasets (n=142). The continuous variables were dichotomized using a normal range or the best cutoff values determined using the Contal and O'Quigley statistical methods. Following a Cox's proportional hazard model, the scoring model was derived by summing the rounded chi-square scores for the factors identified by multivariate analysis. Results The performance status (Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group 3-4), hypoalbuminemia ( < 3.4 mg/dL), carcinoembryonic antigen (≥ 9 ng/mL), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (≥ 3.0), and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (≥ 120 U/mL) were identified as independent prognosticators (Harrell's C index, 0.682; integrated area under the curve, 0.653). Survival was clearly correlated with the risk groups (low, intermediate, and high, 14.0, 7.3, and 2.3 months, respectively; p < 0.001). The prognosis was also discriminative in the validation data set (median survival, 16.7, 7.5, and 1.9 months, respectively; p < 0.001). Chemotherapy did not offer any survival benefits for high-risk patients. Conclusion These proposed prognostic criteria for mBTC can facilitate accurate patient risk stratification and treatment-related decision-making.

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