Climate change is expected to increase temperatures globally, and consequently more frequent, longer, and hotter heat waves are likely to occur. Ambiguity in defining heat waves appropriately makes it difficult to compare changes in heat wave events over time. This study provides a quantitative definition of a heat wave and makes probabilistic heat wave projections for the Korean Peninsula under two global warming scenarios. Changes to heat waves under global warming are investigated using the representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) and 8.5 (RCP8.5) experiments from 30 coupled models participating in phase five of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project. Probabilistic climate projections from multi-model ensembles have been constructed using both simple and weighted averaging. Results from both methods are similar and show that heat waves will be more intense, frequent, and longer lasting. These trends are more apparent under the RCP8.5 scenario as compared to the RCP4.5 scenario. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, typical heat waves are projected to become stronger than any heat wave experienced in the recent measurement record. Furthermore, under this scenario, it cannot be ruled out that Korea will experience heat wave conditions spanning almost an entire summer before the end of the 21st century.
Bibliographical noteFunding Information:
University of Tokyo, National Institute for Environmental Studies & Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Japan Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Germany Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Germany Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Norwegian Climate Centre, Norway
Acknowledgements. This work was funded by the Korea
Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program under grant KMIPA 2015-1043. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for the CMIP, and we thank the climate modeling groups listed in Table 1 of this paper for producing and making available their model output. For CMIP the U.S. Department of Energy’s Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides co-ordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals.
© 2018, Korean Meteorological Society and Springer Science+Business Media B.V., part of Springer Nature.
All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes
- Atmospheric Science