Quantifying the uncertainty of return period and risk in hydrologic design

Jose D. Salas, Jun H. Heo, Dong J. Lee, Paolo Burlando

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

16 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Concepts of risk and uncertainty are commonly used for designing and evaluating flood-related hydraulic structures. A general framework for estimating the uncertainty of the return period and risk is presented based on first-order analysis of uncertainty for determining the variance of the return period and risk of failure and the methods of moments, probability weighted moments, and maximum likelihood. The general method is illustrated using the exponential and Gumbel distributions. The derived variance of the return period is a function of the sample size N and the nonexceedance probability q, while that of the risk is function of N, q, and design life n. Simulation experiments were performed to analyze the behavior of the variance of risk for various values of N, q, and n. They showed that the derived variances of the risk can be applicable for a wide range of conditions, particularly for sample sizes bigger than 50 and design lives smaller or equal to 50. An example is included to illustrate the applicability of the proposed concepts and equations.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)518-526
Number of pages9
JournalJournal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume18
Issue number5
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2013 Jul 9

Fingerprint

return period
Hydraulic structures
hydraulic structure
Method of moments
Maximum likelihood
Uncertainty
simulation
experiment
Experiments

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Environmental Chemistry
  • Civil and Structural Engineering
  • Water Science and Technology
  • Environmental Science(all)

Cite this

Salas, Jose D. ; Heo, Jun H. ; Lee, Dong J. ; Burlando, Paolo. / Quantifying the uncertainty of return period and risk in hydrologic design. In: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering. 2013 ; Vol. 18, No. 5. pp. 518-526.
@article{529c27049c1b469c8c16fdf38e74e045,
title = "Quantifying the uncertainty of return period and risk in hydrologic design",
abstract = "Concepts of risk and uncertainty are commonly used for designing and evaluating flood-related hydraulic structures. A general framework for estimating the uncertainty of the return period and risk is presented based on first-order analysis of uncertainty for determining the variance of the return period and risk of failure and the methods of moments, probability weighted moments, and maximum likelihood. The general method is illustrated using the exponential and Gumbel distributions. The derived variance of the return period is a function of the sample size N and the nonexceedance probability q, while that of the risk is function of N, q, and design life n. Simulation experiments were performed to analyze the behavior of the variance of risk for various values of N, q, and n. They showed that the derived variances of the risk can be applicable for a wide range of conditions, particularly for sample sizes bigger than 50 and design lives smaller or equal to 50. An example is included to illustrate the applicability of the proposed concepts and equations.",
author = "Salas, {Jose D.} and Heo, {Jun H.} and Lee, {Dong J.} and Paolo Burlando",
year = "2013",
month = "7",
day = "9",
doi = "10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000613",
language = "English",
volume = "18",
pages = "518--526",
journal = "Journal of Hydrologic Engineering - ASCE",
issn = "1084-0699",
publisher = "American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE)",
number = "5",

}

Quantifying the uncertainty of return period and risk in hydrologic design. / Salas, Jose D.; Heo, Jun H.; Lee, Dong J.; Burlando, Paolo.

In: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, Vol. 18, No. 5, 09.07.2013, p. 518-526.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - Quantifying the uncertainty of return period and risk in hydrologic design

AU - Salas, Jose D.

AU - Heo, Jun H.

AU - Lee, Dong J.

AU - Burlando, Paolo

PY - 2013/7/9

Y1 - 2013/7/9

N2 - Concepts of risk and uncertainty are commonly used for designing and evaluating flood-related hydraulic structures. A general framework for estimating the uncertainty of the return period and risk is presented based on first-order analysis of uncertainty for determining the variance of the return period and risk of failure and the methods of moments, probability weighted moments, and maximum likelihood. The general method is illustrated using the exponential and Gumbel distributions. The derived variance of the return period is a function of the sample size N and the nonexceedance probability q, while that of the risk is function of N, q, and design life n. Simulation experiments were performed to analyze the behavior of the variance of risk for various values of N, q, and n. They showed that the derived variances of the risk can be applicable for a wide range of conditions, particularly for sample sizes bigger than 50 and design lives smaller or equal to 50. An example is included to illustrate the applicability of the proposed concepts and equations.

AB - Concepts of risk and uncertainty are commonly used for designing and evaluating flood-related hydraulic structures. A general framework for estimating the uncertainty of the return period and risk is presented based on first-order analysis of uncertainty for determining the variance of the return period and risk of failure and the methods of moments, probability weighted moments, and maximum likelihood. The general method is illustrated using the exponential and Gumbel distributions. The derived variance of the return period is a function of the sample size N and the nonexceedance probability q, while that of the risk is function of N, q, and design life n. Simulation experiments were performed to analyze the behavior of the variance of risk for various values of N, q, and n. They showed that the derived variances of the risk can be applicable for a wide range of conditions, particularly for sample sizes bigger than 50 and design lives smaller or equal to 50. An example is included to illustrate the applicability of the proposed concepts and equations.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84879722183&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84879722183&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000613

DO - 10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000613

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:84879722183

VL - 18

SP - 518

EP - 526

JO - Journal of Hydrologic Engineering - ASCE

JF - Journal of Hydrologic Engineering - ASCE

SN - 1084-0699

IS - 5

ER -