This paper studies the contribution of real estate bubble to a financial crisis. First,we document symptoms of a real estate bubble along with a slowdown of the real economy and find indicators of an imminent crash of the stockmarket, triggering a sense of déjà vu fromthe 2008 crisis. However, we show that the relationship between real estate and financialmarkets has changed since the crisis. The empirical analyses provide evidence that the monetary policy has recovered its control over mortgage rates, which had been lost prior to the global financial crisis, and that the real estate market does not have a Granger causality relationship with the stock market any more. Findings suggest that an imminent financial market crash is not likely to be catalyzed by a real estate bubble.
Bibliographical noteFunding Information:
Funding: This work was supported by KAIST through the Moon Soul Graduate School of Future Strategy (K.A.) and by Peking University HSBC Business School through Bairui Trust Research Funds (S.S. and K.A.).
© 2018 by the authors.
All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes
- Geography, Planning and Development
- Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment
- Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law