Abstract
Backgrounds & Aims: We aimed to generate and validate a novel risk prediction model for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) undergoing transarterial chemoembolization (TACE). Methods: Patients receiving TACE as the first-line therapy between 2006 and 2009 were selected from the databases of two major tertiary hospitals in Korea. This study population was randomly assigned into training (n = 340) and validation (n = 145) sets. From a multivariate Cox-regression model for overall survival (OS), tumour Size, tumour Number, baseline Alpha-foetoprotein level, Child– Pugh class and Objective radiological Response after the first TACE session were selected and then scored to generate a 10-point risk prediction model (named as “SNACOR” model) in the training set. Thereafter, the prognostic performance was assessed in the validation set. Results: In the training set, the time-dependent areas under receiver-operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) for OS at 1-, 3- and 6-years were 0.756, 0.754 and 0.742 respectively. According to the score of the SNACOR model, patients were stratified into three groups; low- (score 0–2), intermediate- (score 3–6) and high-risk group (score 7–10) respectively. The low-risk group had the longest median OS (49.8 months), followed by intermediate- (30.7 months) and high-risk group (12.4 months) (log-rank test, P < 0.001). Compared with the low-risk group, the intermediate-risk (hazard ratio [HR] 2.13, P < 0.001) and high-risk group (HR 6.17, P < 0.001) retained significant risks of death. Similar results were obtained in the validation set. Conclusion: A simple-to-use SNACOR model for patients with HCC treated with TACE might be helpful in appropriate prognostification and guidance for decision of further treatment strategies.
Original language | English |
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Pages (from-to) | 92-99 |
Number of pages | 8 |
Journal | Liver International |
Volume | 36 |
Issue number | 1 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - 2016 |
Bibliographical note
Publisher Copyright:© 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S.
All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes
- Hepatology