Abstract
Backgrounds & Aims: We aimed to generate and validate a novel risk prediction model for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) undergoing transarterial chemoembolization (TACE). Methods: Patients receiving TACE as the first-line therapy between 2006 and 2009 were selected from the databases of two major tertiary hospitals in Korea. This study population was randomly assigned into training (n = 340) and validation (n = 145) sets. From a multivariate Cox-regression model for overall survival (OS), tumour Size, tumour Number, baseline Alpha-foetoprotein level, Child– Pugh class and Objective radiological Response after the first TACE session were selected and then scored to generate a 10-point risk prediction model (named as “SNACOR” model) in the training set. Thereafter, the prognostic performance was assessed in the validation set. Results: In the training set, the time-dependent areas under receiver-operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) for OS at 1-, 3- and 6-years were 0.756, 0.754 and 0.742 respectively. According to the score of the SNACOR model, patients were stratified into three groups; low- (score 0–2), intermediate- (score 3–6) and high-risk group (score 7–10) respectively. The low-risk group had the longest median OS (49.8 months), followed by intermediate- (30.7 months) and high-risk group (12.4 months) (log-rank test, P < 0.001). Compared with the low-risk group, the intermediate-risk (hazard ratio [HR] 2.13, P < 0.001) and high-risk group (HR 6.17, P < 0.001) retained significant risks of death. Similar results were obtained in the validation set. Conclusion: A simple-to-use SNACOR model for patients with HCC treated with TACE might be helpful in appropriate prognostification and guidance for decision of further treatment strategies.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 92-99 |
| Number of pages | 8 |
| Journal | Liver International |
| Volume | 36 |
| Issue number | 1 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 2016 Jan 1 |
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All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes
- Hepatology
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Risk prediction for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma undergoing chemoembolization : Development of a prediction model. / Kim, Beom Kyung; Shim, Ju Hyun; Kim, Seungup; Park, Junyong; kim, doyoung; Ahn, SangHoon; Kim, Kang Mo; Lim, Young Suk; Han, KwangHyub; Lee, Han Chu.
In: Liver International, Vol. 36, No. 1, 01.01.2016, p. 92-99.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
TY - JOUR
T1 - Risk prediction for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma undergoing chemoembolization
T2 - Development of a prediction model
AU - Kim, Beom Kyung
AU - Shim, Ju Hyun
AU - Kim, Seungup
AU - Park, Junyong
AU - kim, doyoung
AU - Ahn, SangHoon
AU - Kim, Kang Mo
AU - Lim, Young Suk
AU - Han, KwangHyub
AU - Lee, Han Chu
PY - 2016/1/1
Y1 - 2016/1/1
N2 - Backgrounds & Aims: We aimed to generate and validate a novel risk prediction model for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) undergoing transarterial chemoembolization (TACE). Methods: Patients receiving TACE as the first-line therapy between 2006 and 2009 were selected from the databases of two major tertiary hospitals in Korea. This study population was randomly assigned into training (n = 340) and validation (n = 145) sets. From a multivariate Cox-regression model for overall survival (OS), tumour Size, tumour Number, baseline Alpha-foetoprotein level, Child– Pugh class and Objective radiological Response after the first TACE session were selected and then scored to generate a 10-point risk prediction model (named as “SNACOR” model) in the training set. Thereafter, the prognostic performance was assessed in the validation set. Results: In the training set, the time-dependent areas under receiver-operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) for OS at 1-, 3- and 6-years were 0.756, 0.754 and 0.742 respectively. According to the score of the SNACOR model, patients were stratified into three groups; low- (score 0–2), intermediate- (score 3–6) and high-risk group (score 7–10) respectively. The low-risk group had the longest median OS (49.8 months), followed by intermediate- (30.7 months) and high-risk group (12.4 months) (log-rank test, P < 0.001). Compared with the low-risk group, the intermediate-risk (hazard ratio [HR] 2.13, P < 0.001) and high-risk group (HR 6.17, P < 0.001) retained significant risks of death. Similar results were obtained in the validation set. Conclusion: A simple-to-use SNACOR model for patients with HCC treated with TACE might be helpful in appropriate prognostification and guidance for decision of further treatment strategies.
AB - Backgrounds & Aims: We aimed to generate and validate a novel risk prediction model for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) undergoing transarterial chemoembolization (TACE). Methods: Patients receiving TACE as the first-line therapy between 2006 and 2009 were selected from the databases of two major tertiary hospitals in Korea. This study population was randomly assigned into training (n = 340) and validation (n = 145) sets. From a multivariate Cox-regression model for overall survival (OS), tumour Size, tumour Number, baseline Alpha-foetoprotein level, Child– Pugh class and Objective radiological Response after the first TACE session were selected and then scored to generate a 10-point risk prediction model (named as “SNACOR” model) in the training set. Thereafter, the prognostic performance was assessed in the validation set. Results: In the training set, the time-dependent areas under receiver-operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) for OS at 1-, 3- and 6-years were 0.756, 0.754 and 0.742 respectively. According to the score of the SNACOR model, patients were stratified into three groups; low- (score 0–2), intermediate- (score 3–6) and high-risk group (score 7–10) respectively. The low-risk group had the longest median OS (49.8 months), followed by intermediate- (30.7 months) and high-risk group (12.4 months) (log-rank test, P < 0.001). Compared with the low-risk group, the intermediate-risk (hazard ratio [HR] 2.13, P < 0.001) and high-risk group (HR 6.17, P < 0.001) retained significant risks of death. Similar results were obtained in the validation set. Conclusion: A simple-to-use SNACOR model for patients with HCC treated with TACE might be helpful in appropriate prognostification and guidance for decision of further treatment strategies.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84930159166&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84930159166&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1111/liv.12865
DO - 10.1111/liv.12865
M3 - Article
C2 - 25950442
AN - SCOPUS:84930159166
VL - 36
SP - 92
EP - 99
JO - Liver International
JF - Liver International
SN - 1478-3223
IS - 1
ER -