Risk prediction for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma undergoing chemoembolization: Development of a prediction model

Beom Kyung Kim, Ju Hyun Shim, Seung Up Kim, Jun Yong Park, Do Young Kim, Sang Hoon Ahn, Kang Mo Kim, Young Suk Lim, Kwang Hyub Han, Han Chu Lee

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

25 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Backgrounds & Aims: We aimed to generate and validate a novel risk prediction model for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) undergoing transarterial chemoembolization (TACE). Methods: Patients receiving TACE as the first-line therapy between 2006 and 2009 were selected from the databases of two major tertiary hospitals in Korea. This study population was randomly assigned into training (n = 340) and validation (n = 145) sets. From a multivariate Cox-regression model for overall survival (OS), tumour Size, tumour Number, baseline Alpha-foetoprotein level, Child– Pugh class and Objective radiological Response after the first TACE session were selected and then scored to generate a 10-point risk prediction model (named as “SNACOR” model) in the training set. Thereafter, the prognostic performance was assessed in the validation set. Results: In the training set, the time-dependent areas under receiver-operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) for OS at 1-, 3- and 6-years were 0.756, 0.754 and 0.742 respectively. According to the score of the SNACOR model, patients were stratified into three groups; low- (score 0–2), intermediate- (score 3–6) and high-risk group (score 7–10) respectively. The low-risk group had the longest median OS (49.8 months), followed by intermediate- (30.7 months) and high-risk group (12.4 months) (log-rank test, P < 0.001). Compared with the low-risk group, the intermediate-risk (hazard ratio [HR] 2.13, P < 0.001) and high-risk group (HR 6.17, P < 0.001) retained significant risks of death. Similar results were obtained in the validation set. Conclusion: A simple-to-use SNACOR model for patients with HCC treated with TACE might be helpful in appropriate prognostification and guidance for decision of further treatment strategies.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)92-99
Number of pages8
JournalLiver International
Volume36
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2016 Jan 1

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Hepatology

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