Risk prediction for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma undergoing chemoembolization: Development of a prediction model

Beom Kyung Kim, Ju Hyun Shim, Seungup Kim, Junyong Park, doyoung kim, SangHoon Ahn, Kang Mo Kim, Young Suk Lim, KwangHyub Han, Han Chu Lee

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

18 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Backgrounds & Aims: We aimed to generate and validate a novel risk prediction model for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) undergoing transarterial chemoembolization (TACE). Methods: Patients receiving TACE as the first-line therapy between 2006 and 2009 were selected from the databases of two major tertiary hospitals in Korea. This study population was randomly assigned into training (n = 340) and validation (n = 145) sets. From a multivariate Cox-regression model for overall survival (OS), tumour Size, tumour Number, baseline Alpha-foetoprotein level, Child– Pugh class and Objective radiological Response after the first TACE session were selected and then scored to generate a 10-point risk prediction model (named as “SNACOR” model) in the training set. Thereafter, the prognostic performance was assessed in the validation set. Results: In the training set, the time-dependent areas under receiver-operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) for OS at 1-, 3- and 6-years were 0.756, 0.754 and 0.742 respectively. According to the score of the SNACOR model, patients were stratified into three groups; low- (score 0–2), intermediate- (score 3–6) and high-risk group (score 7–10) respectively. The low-risk group had the longest median OS (49.8 months), followed by intermediate- (30.7 months) and high-risk group (12.4 months) (log-rank test, P < 0.001). Compared with the low-risk group, the intermediate-risk (hazard ratio [HR] 2.13, P < 0.001) and high-risk group (HR 6.17, P < 0.001) retained significant risks of death. Similar results were obtained in the validation set. Conclusion: A simple-to-use SNACOR model for patients with HCC treated with TACE might be helpful in appropriate prognostification and guidance for decision of further treatment strategies.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)92-99
Number of pages8
JournalLiver International
Volume36
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2016 Jan 1

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Hepatocellular Carcinoma
Survival
alpha-Fetoproteins
Korea
Proportional Hazards Models
Tertiary Care Centers
ROC Curve
Neoplasms
Odds Ratio
Databases
Therapeutics
Population

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Hepatology

Cite this

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title = "Risk prediction for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma undergoing chemoembolization: Development of a prediction model",
abstract = "Backgrounds & Aims: We aimed to generate and validate a novel risk prediction model for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) undergoing transarterial chemoembolization (TACE). Methods: Patients receiving TACE as the first-line therapy between 2006 and 2009 were selected from the databases of two major tertiary hospitals in Korea. This study population was randomly assigned into training (n = 340) and validation (n = 145) sets. From a multivariate Cox-regression model for overall survival (OS), tumour Size, tumour Number, baseline Alpha-foetoprotein level, Child– Pugh class and Objective radiological Response after the first TACE session were selected and then scored to generate a 10-point risk prediction model (named as “SNACOR” model) in the training set. Thereafter, the prognostic performance was assessed in the validation set. Results: In the training set, the time-dependent areas under receiver-operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) for OS at 1-, 3- and 6-years were 0.756, 0.754 and 0.742 respectively. According to the score of the SNACOR model, patients were stratified into three groups; low- (score 0–2), intermediate- (score 3–6) and high-risk group (score 7–10) respectively. The low-risk group had the longest median OS (49.8 months), followed by intermediate- (30.7 months) and high-risk group (12.4 months) (log-rank test, P < 0.001). Compared with the low-risk group, the intermediate-risk (hazard ratio [HR] 2.13, P < 0.001) and high-risk group (HR 6.17, P < 0.001) retained significant risks of death. Similar results were obtained in the validation set. Conclusion: A simple-to-use SNACOR model for patients with HCC treated with TACE might be helpful in appropriate prognostification and guidance for decision of further treatment strategies.",
author = "Kim, {Beom Kyung} and Shim, {Ju Hyun} and Seungup Kim and Junyong Park and doyoung kim and SangHoon Ahn and Kim, {Kang Mo} and Lim, {Young Suk} and KwangHyub Han and Lee, {Han Chu}",
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Risk prediction for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma undergoing chemoembolization : Development of a prediction model. / Kim, Beom Kyung; Shim, Ju Hyun; Kim, Seungup; Park, Junyong; kim, doyoung; Ahn, SangHoon; Kim, Kang Mo; Lim, Young Suk; Han, KwangHyub; Lee, Han Chu.

In: Liver International, Vol. 36, No. 1, 01.01.2016, p. 92-99.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - Risk prediction for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma undergoing chemoembolization

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AU - Kim, Beom Kyung

AU - Shim, Ju Hyun

AU - Kim, Seungup

AU - Park, Junyong

AU - kim, doyoung

AU - Ahn, SangHoon

AU - Kim, Kang Mo

AU - Lim, Young Suk

AU - Han, KwangHyub

AU - Lee, Han Chu

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N2 - Backgrounds & Aims: We aimed to generate and validate a novel risk prediction model for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) undergoing transarterial chemoembolization (TACE). Methods: Patients receiving TACE as the first-line therapy between 2006 and 2009 were selected from the databases of two major tertiary hospitals in Korea. This study population was randomly assigned into training (n = 340) and validation (n = 145) sets. From a multivariate Cox-regression model for overall survival (OS), tumour Size, tumour Number, baseline Alpha-foetoprotein level, Child– Pugh class and Objective radiological Response after the first TACE session were selected and then scored to generate a 10-point risk prediction model (named as “SNACOR” model) in the training set. Thereafter, the prognostic performance was assessed in the validation set. Results: In the training set, the time-dependent areas under receiver-operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) for OS at 1-, 3- and 6-years were 0.756, 0.754 and 0.742 respectively. According to the score of the SNACOR model, patients were stratified into three groups; low- (score 0–2), intermediate- (score 3–6) and high-risk group (score 7–10) respectively. The low-risk group had the longest median OS (49.8 months), followed by intermediate- (30.7 months) and high-risk group (12.4 months) (log-rank test, P < 0.001). Compared with the low-risk group, the intermediate-risk (hazard ratio [HR] 2.13, P < 0.001) and high-risk group (HR 6.17, P < 0.001) retained significant risks of death. Similar results were obtained in the validation set. Conclusion: A simple-to-use SNACOR model for patients with HCC treated with TACE might be helpful in appropriate prognostification and guidance for decision of further treatment strategies.

AB - Backgrounds & Aims: We aimed to generate and validate a novel risk prediction model for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) undergoing transarterial chemoembolization (TACE). Methods: Patients receiving TACE as the first-line therapy between 2006 and 2009 were selected from the databases of two major tertiary hospitals in Korea. This study population was randomly assigned into training (n = 340) and validation (n = 145) sets. From a multivariate Cox-regression model for overall survival (OS), tumour Size, tumour Number, baseline Alpha-foetoprotein level, Child– Pugh class and Objective radiological Response after the first TACE session were selected and then scored to generate a 10-point risk prediction model (named as “SNACOR” model) in the training set. Thereafter, the prognostic performance was assessed in the validation set. Results: In the training set, the time-dependent areas under receiver-operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) for OS at 1-, 3- and 6-years were 0.756, 0.754 and 0.742 respectively. According to the score of the SNACOR model, patients were stratified into three groups; low- (score 0–2), intermediate- (score 3–6) and high-risk group (score 7–10) respectively. The low-risk group had the longest median OS (49.8 months), followed by intermediate- (30.7 months) and high-risk group (12.4 months) (log-rank test, P < 0.001). Compared with the low-risk group, the intermediate-risk (hazard ratio [HR] 2.13, P < 0.001) and high-risk group (HR 6.17, P < 0.001) retained significant risks of death. Similar results were obtained in the validation set. Conclusion: A simple-to-use SNACOR model for patients with HCC treated with TACE might be helpful in appropriate prognostification and guidance for decision of further treatment strategies.

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