OBJECTIVE: To stratify the postsurgical computed tomography (CT) surveillance based on a risk-scoring system for predicting extragastric recurrence after surgical resection of early gastric cancer (EGC). SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA: Postsurgical CT surveillance should not be routinely performed in all patients because of the low incidence of extragastric recurrence and potential risk of radiation exposure. METHODS: Data from 3162 patients who underwent surgical resection for EGC were reviewed to develop a risk-scoring system to predict extragastric recurrence. Risk scores were based on the predictive factors for extragastric recurrence, which were determined using Cox proportional hazard regression model. The risk-scoring system was validated by Uno censoring adjusted C-index. External validation was performed using an independent dataset (n = 430). RESULTS: The overall incidence of extragastric recurrence was 1.4% (44/3162). Five risk factors (lymph node metastasis, indications for endoscopic resection, male sex, positive lymphovascular invasion, and elevated macroscopic type), which were significantly associated with extragastric recurrence, were incorporated into the risk-scoring system, and the patients were categorized into 2 risk groups. The 10-year extragastric recurrence-free survival differed significantly between low- and high-risk groups (99.7% vs 96.5%; P < 0.001). The predictive accuracy of the risk-scoring system in the development cohort was 0.870 [Uno C-index; 95% confidence interval (95% CI), 0.800-0.939]. Discrimination was good after internal (0.859) and external validation (0.782, 0.549-1.000). CONCLUSION: This risk-scoring system might be useful to predict extragastric recurrence of EGC after curative surgical resection. We suggest that postsurgical CT surveillance to detect extragastric recurrence should be avoided in the low-risk group.
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