Stress test for a technology credit guarantee fund based on survival analysis

Yonghan Ju, So Young Sohn

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

10 Citations (Scopus)


A technology credit guarantee policy has been established to provide financial support to technology-based SMEs with a limited asset base. For an effective technology credit guarantee policy, risk management is essential. In this paper, we investigate a survival model that predicts start-up SMEs' loan default probability at a given time based on technology attributes along with the economic environment and the firm's characteristics at the time of the technology credit guarantee fund application. This, in turn, is used for the estimation of the technology fund risk along with a stress test. Our work is expected to contribute to reducing the risks associated with technology financing.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)463-475
Number of pages13
JournalJournal of the Operational Research Society
Issue number3
Publication statusPublished - 2015 Mar 5

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
Acknowledgements—This research was supported by the Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT & Future Planning (2013R1A2A1A09004699).

Publisher Copyright:
© 2015 Operational Research Society Ltd.

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Management Information Systems
  • Strategy and Management
  • Management Science and Operations Research
  • Marketing


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