Successive modulation of ENSO to the future greenhouse warming

Soon Il An, Jong Seong Kug, Yoo Geun Ham, In Sik Kang

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

51 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The multidecadal modulation of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) due to greenhouse warming has been analyzed herein by means of diagnostics of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) and the eigenanalysis of a simplified version of an intermediate ENSO model. The response of the global-mean troposphere temperature to increasing greenhouse gases is more likely linear, while the amplitude and period of ENSO fluctuates in a multidecadal time scale. The climate system model outputs suggest that the multidecadal modulation of ENSO is related to the delayed response of the subsurface temperature in the tropical Pacific compared to the response time of the sea surface temperature (SST), which would lead a modulation of the vertical temperature gradient. Furthermore, an eigenanalysis considering only two parameters, the changes in the zonal contrast of the mean background SST and the changes in the vertical contrast between the mean surface and subsurface temperatures in the tropical Pacific, exhibits a good agreement with the CGCM outputs in terms of the multidecadal modulations of the ENSO amplitude and period. In particular, the change in the vertical contrast, that is, change in difference between the subsurface temperature and SST. turns out to be more influential on the ENSO modulation than changes in the mean SST itself.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)3-21
Number of pages19
JournalJournal of Climate
Volume21
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2008 Jan 1

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Southern Oscillation
warming
sea surface temperature
general circulation model
temperature
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
temperature gradient
troposphere
greenhouse gas
timescale
climate

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Atmospheric Science

Cite this

An, Soon Il ; Kug, Jong Seong ; Ham, Yoo Geun ; Kang, In Sik. / Successive modulation of ENSO to the future greenhouse warming. In: Journal of Climate. 2008 ; Vol. 21, No. 1. pp. 3-21.
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Successive modulation of ENSO to the future greenhouse warming. / An, Soon Il; Kug, Jong Seong; Ham, Yoo Geun; Kang, In Sik.

In: Journal of Climate, Vol. 21, No. 1, 01.01.2008, p. 3-21.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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