Objectives: In this study, we develop a model based on big data analysis to find patterns in North Korean nuclear provocations. Methods: Using automated text analysis classification through supervised machine learning techniques, we analyze the North Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) from 1997 to 2013. Results: We find an interesting difference between the Kim Jong-il era and the Kim and Jong-un period, implying a major shift in the nuclear policy of Pyongyang. While Kim Jong-il, who had a firm grip on power, focused on the international audience before conducting nuclear tests, Kim Jong-un during his succession targeted the domestic audience prior to nuclear tests, probably in an attempt to consolidate his precarious power. Conclusion: The machine learning technique allows us to analyze the effect of political communication even in authoritarian governments.
Bibliographical noteFunding Information:
∗Direct correspondence to Hyung-min Joo, Department of Political Science and International Relations, Korea University, Seoul, South Korea 〈email@example.com〉. The publication of this article is supported by a grant from Korea University (NARS3270Q-K1507681) and the Ministry of Education of the Republic of Korea and the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF-2016S1A3A2925085). An earlier version of this article was presented at the 2016 annual convention of the International Studies Association (ISA) in Atlanta, the United States.
All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes
- Social Sciences(all)