Technology scoring model for reflecting evaluator's perception within confidence limits

Tae Hee Moon, So Young Sohn

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

14 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The main purpose of this study is to propose a new technology scoring model for reflecting the total perception scoring phenomenon which happens often in many evaluation settings. A base model used is a logistic regression for non-default prediction of a firm. The point estimator used to predict the probability for non-default based on this model does not consider the risk involved in the estimation error. We propose to update the point estimator within its confidence interval using the evaluator's perception. The proposed approach takes into account not only the risk involved in the estimation error of the point estimator but also the total perception scoring phenomenon. Empirical evidence of a better prediction ability of the proposed model is displayed in terms of the area under the ROC curves. Additionally, we showed that the proposed model can take advantage when it is applied to smaller data size. It is expected that the proposed approach can be applied to various technology related decision-makings such as R&D investment, alliance, transfer, and loan.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)981-989
Number of pages9
JournalEuropean Journal of Operational Research
Volume184
Issue number3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2008 Feb 1

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Computer Science(all)
  • Modelling and Simulation
  • Management Science and Operations Research
  • Information Systems and Management

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