Abstract
The Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) dominates the interannual variability of the tropical stratosphere and influences other regions of the atmosphere. The high predictability of the QBO implies that its teleconnections could lead to increased skill of seasonal and decadal forecasts provided the relevant mechanisms are accurately represented in models. Here modelling and sampling uncertainties of QBO teleconnections are examined using a multi-model ensemble of QBO-resolving atmospheric general circulation models that have carried out a set of coordinated experiments as part of the Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) QBO initiative (QBOi). During Northern Hemisphere winter, the stratospheric polar vortex in most of these models strengthens when the QBO near 50 hPa is westerly and weakens when it is easterly, consistent with, but weaker than, the observed response. These weak responses are likely due to model errors, such as systematically weak QBO amplitudes near 50 hPa, affecting the teleconnection. The teleconnection to the North Atlantic Oscillation is less well captured overall, but of similar strength to the observed signal in the few models that do show it. The models do not show clear evidence of a QBO teleconnection to the Northern Hemisphere Pacific-sector subtropical jet.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 1568-1592 |
| Number of pages | 25 |
| Journal | Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society |
| Volume | 148 |
| Issue number | 744 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 2022 Apr 1 |
Bibliographical note
Funding Information:information National Science Foundation (NSF) US Department of Energy,1852977;1844590We acknowledge the UK's Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) for hosting the QBOi data archive. This work was supported by the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which is a major facility sponsored by the National Science Foundation under Cooperative Agreement no. 1852977. Portions of this study were supported by the Regional and Global Model Analysis (RGMA) component of the Earth and Environmental System Modeling Program of the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Biological & Environmental Research (BER) via National Science Foundation IA 1844590. NB was supported by the Met Office Hadley Centre Programme funded by BEIS and Defra. SO and LG were supported by the National Centre for Atmospheric Science and the Natural Environment Research Council (NE/P006779/1, NE/N018001/1). FL and SO were supported by the JPI-Climate/Belmont Forum 423 project GOTHAM (ANR-15-JCLI-0004-01, NERC NE/P006779/1). CC and FS were supported by the Copernicus Climate Change Service, funded by the EU and implemented by ECMWF. HN was supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (S-12) of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan and by Grant-in-Aid (JP18K03748, JP20H05171) for Science Research (KAKENHI) from the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology of Japan. For the EMAC simulations, PB, TK, and SV acknowledge support by the state of Baden-Württemberg through bwHPC. YK was supported by the Japan Society for Promotion of Science (JSPS) KAKENHI (grant nos. JP15KK0178, JP17K18816, JP18H01286 and 19H05702) and by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (JPMEERF20192004) of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan. YK and KH were supported by the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) through its sponsorship of research at the International Pacific Research Center. SW and YK were partly supported by the “Integrated Research Program for Advancing Climate Models (TOUGOU program)” from the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT), Japan. The Earth Simulator was used for MIROC-ESM and MIROC-AGCM-LL simulations. We acknowledge the scientific guidance of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) for helping motivate this work, coordinated under the framework of the Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) QBO initiative (QBOi) led by JA, NB, KH and SO.
Funding Information:
We acknowledge the UK's Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) for hosting the QBOi data archive. This work was supported by the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which is a major facility sponsored by the National Science Foundation under Cooperative Agreement no. 1852977. Portions of this study were supported by the Regional and Global Model Analysis (RGMA) component of the Earth and Environmental System Modeling Program of the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Biological & Environmental Research (BER) via National Science Foundation IA 1844590. NB was supported by the Met Office Hadley Centre Programme funded by BEIS and Defra. SO and LG were supported by the National Centre for Atmospheric Science and the Natural Environment Research Council (NE/P006779/1, NE/N018001/1). FL and SO were supported by the JPI‐Climate/Belmont Forum 423 project GOTHAM (ANR‐15‐JCLI‐0004‐01, NERC NE/P006779/1). CC and FS were supported by the Copernicus Climate Change Service, funded by the EU and implemented by ECMWF. HN was supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (S‐12) of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan and by Grant‐in‐Aid (JP18K03748, JP20H05171) for Science Research (KAKENHI) from the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology of Japan. For the EMAC simulations, PB, TK, and SV acknowledge support by the state of Baden‐Württemberg through bwHPC. YK was supported by the Japan Society for Promotion of Science (JSPS) KAKENHI (grant nos. JP15KK0178, JP17K18816, JP18H01286 and 19H05702) and by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (JPMEERF20192004) of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan. YK and KH were supported by the Japan Agency for Marine‐Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) through its sponsorship of research at the International Pacific Research Center. SW and YK were partly supported by the “Integrated Research Program for Advancing Climate Models (TOUGOU program)” from the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT), Japan. The Earth Simulator was used for MIROC‐ESM and MIROC‐AGCM‐LL simulations. We acknowledge the scientific guidance of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) for helping motivate this work, coordinated under the framework of the Stratosphere‐troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) QBO initiative (QBOi) led by JA, NB, KH and SO.
Funding Information:
National Science Foundation (NSF) US Department of Energy,1852977;1844590 Funding information
Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 Crown copyright. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Royal Meteorological Society. This article is published with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the Queen's Printer for Scotland. Reproduced with the permission of the Minister of Environment and Climate Change Canada.
All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes
- Atmospheric Science
