The prioritization and verification of IT emerging technologies using an analytic hierarchy process and cluster analysis

Sangjae Lee, Wanki Kim, Young Min Kim, Hyoung Yong Lee, Kyong Joo Oh

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

22 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This study proposes a quantitative technology forecasting method for prioritizing investments using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) analysis and a verification process to evaluate the prioritization using factor analysis and cluster analysis of the factor scores. To verify the prioritization process of emerging technologies, this study completed two surveys of experts. Cluster analysis of the factor scores based on the second survey is used to verify the results of prioritization using AHP analysis based on the first survey. The results suggest high hit ratios between the prioritization using AHP analysis and the cluster analysis of factor scores. This confirms that the AHP method is significantly reliable as a method for selecting promising electronic device technologies. As the emerging technology market is more changeable than ever before, the study's prioritization and verification process provides a relevantly robust solution.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)292-304
Number of pages13
JournalTechnological Forecasting and Social Change
Volume87
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2014 Sep

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Business and International Management
  • Applied Psychology
  • Management of Technology and Innovation

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