Uncertainty analysis of the risk of failure for generalized logistic distribution

Hongjoon Shin, Younghun Jung, Taesoon Kim, Jun Haeng Heo

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

The concepts of risk and uncertainty are commonly utilized for designing and evaluating hydraulic structures such as spillways and dikes. In this study, uncertainty analysis is performed for the risk of failure based on the generalized logistic distribution that is recently recommended as an appropriate probability distribution for flood frequency analysis in UK by Institute of Hydrology. For this purpose, we derived the expected values and the variances of the risk of failure based on the methods of moments, maximum likelihood, and probability weighted moments for the generalized logistic model. The derived variances of the risk of failure based on the methods of moments, maximum likelihood, and probability weighted moments are functions of sample size, design life, and non-exceedance probability. In addition, simulation experiments have been performed to figure out the behavior of the risk of failure for various the sample sizes, design lives, non-exceedance probabilities, and coefficients of variation.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationRestoring Our Natural Habitat - Proceedings of the 2007 World Environmental and Water Resources Congress
Publication statusPublished - 2007 Dec 1
Event2007 World Environmental and Water Resources Congress: Restoring Our Natural Habitat - Tampa, FL, United States
Duration: 2007 May 152007 May 19

Publication series

NameRestoring Our Natural Habitat - Proceedings of the 2007 World Environmental and Water Resources Congress

Other

Other2007 World Environmental and Water Resources Congress: Restoring Our Natural Habitat
CountryUnited States
CityTampa, FL
Period07/5/1507/5/19

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All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Environmental Engineering
  • Water Science and Technology

Cite this

Shin, H., Jung, Y., Kim, T., & Heo, J. H. (2007). Uncertainty analysis of the risk of failure for generalized logistic distribution. In Restoring Our Natural Habitat - Proceedings of the 2007 World Environmental and Water Resources Congress (Restoring Our Natural Habitat - Proceedings of the 2007 World Environmental and Water Resources Congress).