US, Mammography, and Histopathologic Evaluation to Identify Low Nuclear Grade Ductal Carcinoma in Situ

Background: Low nuclear grade ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) identified at biopsy can be upgraded to intermediate to high nuclear grade DCIS at surgery. Methods that confirm low nuclear grade are needed to consider nonsurgical approaches for these patients. Purpose: To develop a preoperative model to identify low nuclear grade DCIS and to evaluate factors associated with low nuclear grade DCIS at biopsy that was not upgraded to intermediate to high nuclear grade DCIS at surgery. Materials and Methods: In this retrospective study, 470 women (median age, 50 years; interquartile range, 44-58 years) with 477 pure DCIS lesions at surgical histopathologic evaluation were included (January 2010 to December 2015). Patients were divided into the training set (n = 330) or validation set (n = 147) to develop a preoperative model to identify low nuclear grade DCIS. Features at US (mass, nonmass) and at mammography (morphologic characteristics, distribution of microcalcification) were reviewed. The upgrade rate of low nuclear grade DCIS was calculated, and multivariable regression was used to evaluate factors for associations with low nuclear grade DCIS that was not upgraded later. Results: A preoperative model that included lesions manifesting as a mass at US without microcalcification and no comedonecrosis at biopsy was used to identify low nuclear grade DCIS, with a high area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.97 (95% CI: 0.94, 1.00) in the validation set. The upgrade rate of low nuclear grade DCIS at biopsy was 38.8% (50 of 129). Ki-67 positivity (odds ratio, 0.04; 95% CI: 0.0003, 0.43; P = .005) was inversely associated with constant low nuclear grade DCIS. Conclusion: The upgrade rate of low nuclear grade ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) at biopsy to intermediate to high nuclear grade DCIS at surgery occurred in more than a third of patients; low nuclear grade DCIS at final histopathologic evaluation could be identified if the mass was viewed at US without microcalcifications and had no comedonecrosis at histopathologic evaluation of biopsy.